Augur Digest #101 (Flash)

1. Global Economics
   1. United States
   2. Europe
   3. Asia-Pacific
   4. China
   5. Emerging Markets ex China
2. Global Markets
   1. Equities
   2. Fixed Income
   3. FX
   4. Commodities
   5. Cryptocurrency

Global Economics

United States

• Container volume at the Port of Los Angeles declined sharply over the past two weeks.

• Those who are not in the labor force but want a job have increased meaningfully this year.

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Europe

• Germany’s current account surplus narrowed in the latest reading (act: €8.3B, prev: €15.6B).

• Portugal's daily economic activity indicator has declined.

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Asia-Pacific

• New Zealand's services sector remained in contraction for the 19th consecutive month, with the PSI rising slightly to 48.3. The improvement was driven by a slower decline in sales and new orders, though weak consumer confidence and high costs continue to curb demand and employment. The broader Composite Index (PCI) also pointed to ongoing economic contraction at 48.5. New Zealand is a notable underperformer globally, with its services sector contracting while key partners like Australia, China, and the US expand, highlighting that the country’s struggles are driven by significant domestic headwinds.

• New Zealand's tourism recovery continued, with visitor arrivals accelerating in the year to September (act: 7.5% Y/Y, prev: 6.6%).

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China

• China's trade growth accelerated in September, significantly beating consensus estimates. Exports rose 8.3% Y/Y (est: 6.0%), while imports surged 7.4% Y/Y, well above the 1.5% forecast. The strong export performance was driven by a rebound in shipments to the US, although sequential growth momentum stalled. The broad-based import surprise points to firming domestic demand, helped by more working days and strong sequential gains. The trade surplus consequently narrowed to $90.5 billion.

• Goldman's augmented fiscal deficit for China has widened in recent months.

Source: Goldman Sachs

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Emerging Markets ex China

• Turkey's current account deficit widened to a record high, coming in slightly above expectations (act: $5.4B, est: $5.3B).

• Turkish auto production growth stalled, contracting slightly after a strong prior month (act: -0.1% Y/Y, prev: 37.0%).

• India's headline inflation fell further to 1.54% Y/Y in September, below consensus and the RBI's 2–6% target range, primarily due to a sharp 21.4% year-over-year fall in vegetable prices. In contrast, core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose to 4.5% from 4.1%, driven by higher housing and gold costs. Despite this divergence, the RBI has signaled a December rate cut, with analysts forecasting a 25 bps reduction as recent tax cuts are expected to cool core inflation pressures.

• Russia's trade surplus shrank in the latest period (act: $7.47B, prev: $12.7B).

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Global Markets

Equities

• Stocks staged a comeback. Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund had the best 1-day return since April …

… led by China.

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Fixed Income

• The year-to-date Treasury return, when annualized, is the best in five years.

• Market-based inflation expectations have declined over the past few weeks.

• Kansas City Fed Policy Rate Uncertainty rose.

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FX

• The Canadian dollar weakened to the lowest level against USD since April.

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Commodities

• Gold continues its relentless surge.

• Silver jumped by 6.3% in a 3.7σ move.

• Cocoa declined for the fifth consecutive session to the lowest level in a year.

• Cotton, on a roll-adjusted basis, fell to the lowest level since 2021.

• Cattle prices have surged.

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Cryptocurrency

• Bitcoin volatility has risen.

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Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automatically generated newsletter edited by humans. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.