Augur Digest #109

Author

Augur Infinity
October 23, 2025

  1. Headlines
  2. Global Economics
    1. United States
    2. Canada
    3. Europe
    4. Asia-Pacific
    5. Emerging Markets ex China
  3. Global Markets
    1. Equities
    2. Fixed Income
    3. FX
    4. Commodities
  4. Musings

Headlines

  • White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi on October 30th.
  • The United States imposed sanctions on Russian energy companies Rosneft and Lukoil, a development that coincided with a sharp increase in crude oil prices.

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Global Economics

United States

  • Goldman forecasts September core CPI to rise by 0.25% (vs. +0.3% consensus) and headline CPI to increase by 0.33% (vs. +0.4% consensus).

Source: Goldman Sachs

  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index rose to a one-year high, driven by a strong jump in production. However, growth was narrow, with new orders and employment nearly flat. Price indexes remained elevated, squeezing margins.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in more than a year.
  • Existing home sales rose by 1.5% M/M, the fastest pace in seven months, as lower mortgage rates and easing price gains revived demand.

The supply of previously owned homes for sale surged to its highest September level since 2019.

  • The market is fully pricing in a 25 bps rate cut at the FOMC meeting next week.

The Fed is also expected to stop its balance sheet runoff.

Source: Bloomberg

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Canada

  • Canadian retail sales rose 1% in August. The strength was concentrated in motor vehicles as consumers moved to purchase cars ahead of anticipated US tariffs. Sales excluding autos were a softer 0.7% M/M. The advance estimate for September pointed to a decline.
  • Preliminary data showed Canadian manufacturing sales rebounded strongly in September, posting their largest monthly gain since March 2022.
  • Timely tracking shows Canada returning to positive growth, but the growth rate remains low and well below potential.

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Europe

  • The UK CBI industrial orders balance fell sharply, marking the weakest reading since December 2024.
  • Euro area consumer confidence improved for a second consecutive month in October. Despite the improvement, sentiment remains well below its historical average.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • French manufacturing confidence jumped 4 points to 101 in October, significantly beating expectations.
  • Spain's reported trade deficit widened in August, but actually narrowed after seasonal adjustment.
  • Dutch consumer confidence improved in October, rising to its best level since December 2024, though it remains deeply in pessimistic territory.
  • Norway’s unemployment rate edged down to 4.8% in September.

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Asia-Pacific

  • Weekly portfolio flow data showed foreigners buying Japanese stocks for a third consecutive week.
  • The Bank of Korea held its policy rate steady at 2.5%, as widely expected. The forward guidance moderated slightly, with four of six Monetary Policy Committee members now open to a near-term rate cut, down from five, citing increased financial stability risks. One member again voted for an immediate 25 bps cut.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Singapore's inflation accelerated in September, driven by higher private transport costs, a pickup in recreation inflation, and rising prices for retail goods like furniture and personal care.
  • Taiwan's industrial production accelerated. The headline figure masked a significant divergence, as a strong AI-driven rebound in computers and optical products was offset by a contraction in the largest sector, electronic parts and components.
  • Taiwan's retail sales contracted year over year. The decline was driven by a sharp monthly drop in food and beverage services.
  • Taiwan's M2 money supply growth accelerated to 5.44% Y/Y in September, the fastest pace since January.
  • Hong Kong's inflation was stable in September.

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Emerging Markets ex China

  • Mexican retail sales rose more than expected in August.
  • Mexico's mid-month inflation came in below expectations. The surprise was driven by a drop in non-core food prices, though sticky services inflation remains a key concern for the central bank.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 100 basis points to 39.5%. The move was in line with consensus.
  • Turkish consumer confidence edged down slightly in October.
  • Turkey’s gross foreign exchange reserves decreased slightly in the latest week.
  • Poland's unemployment rate ticked up to 5.6% in September, in line with consensus.
  • Indonesia's M2 money supply growth accelerated to 8.0% Y/Y in September.
  • Argentina consumer confidence improved.
  • Argentina retail sales rose in August, but the gain evaporated after adjusting for inflation.

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Global Markets

Equities

  • US equities advanced, with the S&P 500 rising 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading gains with a 0.9% increase. The energy sector was a notable outperformer following the announcement of US sanctions against major Russian oil producers. Global markets were also broadly positive; Chinese equities surged 1.9%, and South Korea continued its strong monthly performance, rising another 0.9% for a total gain of 12.8% over the past month.
  • iShares MSCI ACWI ETF has reached the 37th all-time high of the year …

… and FTSE 100 Index has reached the 32nd all-time high of 2025.

  • Nifty 50 Index is trading at the highest level since September 2024.
  • Swiss Market Index declined for the fifth consecutive session.
  • S&P MERVAL is above its 100-day moving average.
  • The volume of stocks executed by off-exchange venues, a proxy for retail involvement, is poised to make up 50% of the total this year for the first time ever.

Source: Bloomberg

  • Citi's data also shows retail trading activity hitting all-time-high levels.

Source: Citi Global Markets

  • Barron’s latest Big Money poll shows 47% of professional investors are upbeat about the market’s prospects over the next 12 months, compared with 28% in the spring.

Source: Barron's

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Fixed Income

  • US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield climbing 5.3 basis points. The move was driven by renewed inflation concerns after a spike in oil prices, which followed news of US sanctions on Russian energy firms.
  • BDC spreads have widened in recent weeks amid weaker sentiment.

Source: Barclays

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FX

  • The Korean won continues to depreciate, now at the worst level against USD since April.
  • The Philippine peso depreciated for the fifth day to the weakest level since February, as foreign investors sold local stocks for the third month.
  • The Turkish lira is the second-worst performing EM FX this year, only ahead of the Argentine peso.

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Commodities

  • Brent crude is having the best two days since April 2023.
  • Gasoline posted the strongest 2-day return since October 2024.
  • Orange juice jumped.
  • US oil demand is surging again — projected to average 20.6M barrels/day in 2025, the highest in 18 years. Cheap fuel, sprawling suburbs, weak EV adoption, and relaxed fuel-efficiency rules under Trump are driving consumption higher.

Source: Bloomberg

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Musings

  • CFA Level III pass rate rose to 50% in August, but remained below the 51% average over the past ten years.

Source: Bloomberg

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Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automatically generated newsletter edited by humans. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.

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