Augur Digest #109 (Flash)

1. Headlines
2. Global Economics
   1. Canada
   2. Europe
   3. Asia-Pacific
   4. Emerging Markets ex China
3. Global Markets
   1. Equities
   2. FX
   3. Commodities

Headlines

• The United States imposed sanctions on Russian energy companies Rosneft and Lukoil, a development that coincided with a sharp increase in crude oil prices.

Back to Contents

Global Economics

Canada

• Canadian retail sales rose 1% in August. The strength was concentrated in motor vehicles as consumers moved to purchase cars ahead of anticipated US tariffs. Sales excluding autos were a softer 0.7% M/M. The advance estimate for September pointed to a decline.

• Preliminary data showed Canadian manufacturing sales rebounded strongly in September, posting their largest monthly gain since March 2022.

Back to Contents

Europe

• The UK CBI industrial orders balance fell sharply, marking the weakest reading since December 2024.

• Euro area consumer confidence improved for a second consecutive month in October. Despite the improvement, sentiment remains well below its historical average.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

• French manufacturing confidence jumped 4 points to 101 in October, significantly beating expectations.

• Spain's reported trade deficit widened in August, but actually narrowed after seasonal adjustment.

• Dutch consumer confidence improved in October, rising to its best level since December 2024, though it remains deeply in pessimistic territory.

• Norway’s unemployment rate edged down to 4.8% in September.

Back to Contents

Asia-Pacific

• Weekly portfolio flow data showed foreigners buying Japanese stocks for a third consecutive week.

• The Bank of Korea held its policy rate steady at 2.5%, as widely expected. The forward guidance moderated slightly, with four of six Monetary Policy Committee members now open to a near-term rate cut, down from five previously, citing increased financial stability risks. One member again voted for an immediate 25 bps cut.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

• Singapore's inflation accelerated in September, driven by higher private transport costs, a pickup in recreation inflation, and rising prices for retail goods like furniture and personal care.

• Taiwan's industrial production accelerated. The headline figure masked a significant divergence, as a strong AI-driven rebound in computers and optical products was offset by a contraction in the largest sector, electronic parts and components.

• Taiwan's retail sales contracted year over year. The decline was driven by a sharp monthly drop in food and beverage services.

• Taiwan's M2 money supply growth accelerated to 5.44% Y/Y in September, the fastest pace since January.

• Hong Kong's inflation was stable in September.

Back to Contents

Emerging Markets ex China

• Mexican retail sales rose more than expected in August, driven by solid real wage growth.

• Mexico's mid-month inflation came in below expectations. The surprise was driven by a drop in non-core food prices, though sticky services inflation remains a key concern for the central bank.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

• The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 100 basis points to 39.5%. The move was in line with consensus.

• Turkish consumer confidence edged down slightly in October.

• Turkey’s gross foreign exchange reserves decreased slightly in the latest week.

• Poland's unemployment rate ticked up to 5.6% in September, in line with consensus.

• Indonesia's M2 money supply growth accelerated to 8.0% Y/Y in September.

Back to Contents

Global Markets

Equities

• FTSE 100 Index has reached the 32nd all-time high of 2025.

• Nifty 50 Index is trading at the highest level since September 2024.

• Swiss Market Index declined for the fifth consecutive session.

• S&P MERVAL is above its 100-day moving average.

Back to Contents

FX

• The Korean won continues to depreciate, now at the worst level against USD since April.

• The Philippine peso depreciated for the fifth day.

Back to Contents

Commodities

• Brent crude is having the best two days since April 2023.

• Gasoline posted the strongest 2-day return since October 2024.

• Coffee rallied for the fifth consecutive session.

• Orange juice jumped.

Back to Contents

Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automatically generated newsletter edited by humans. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.