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Augur Digest #110 (Flash)

Augur Digest #110 (Flash)

Augur Infinity
October 24, 2025

Note: This is the Augur Digest Flash—an early look at today’s economic developments. The full edition will be released at 4 p.m.

Headlines
Global Economics
Global Markets
Musings

Headlines

US President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi on October 30, just ahead of a November 1 deadline for increased tariffs on imports from China.
President Trump announced that trade negotiations with Canada have been terminated.
The Chinese government approved its next five-year plan, which focuses on achieving technological breakthroughs and revitalizing domestic consumption.

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Global Economics

United States

US headline and core inflation rose by 0.310% M/M and 0.227%, respectively, both cooler than expected.

Here’s how key aggregates contributed to the year-over-year rate.

Supercore inflation remained elevated over the past few months.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

Tariff effects seemed visible in some categories.

Equities rallied on the softer than expected print, while bond yields initially fell before whipsawing.

The report also sealed expectations for the Fed to cut rates at next week’s policy meeting.

Social Security benefits for retirees will rise 2.8% in 2026.

Source: WSJ

The White House said there likely will not be a release of inflation data next month due to the government shutdown.

Source: Reuters

Using state-level data, Goldman estimates initial claims rose to 227K for the week ended October 18.

Source: Goldman Sachs

Here are initial claims by year.

Continuing claims rose to 1935K for the week ended October 11.

Source: Goldman Sachs

Both the manufacturing and services PMIs for the US rose and beat consensus estimates in October. Underlying details suggest weakness, however, with business confidence falling to a three-year low due to tariff concerns and export orders dropping. An unprecedented rise in unsold manufacturing inventory signals potential future slowdowns.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for October was revised down, with both the current conditions and expectations components of the survey weakening.

The one-year inflation expectations easing to 4.6%, while five-year expectations increased to 3.9%.

The US Weekly Economic Index softened.

Bank reserve balance fell below $3 trillion, adding pressure for the Fed to end QT.

Source: Bloomberg

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Canada

The New Housing Price Index contracted for the sixth consecutive month.

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United Kingdom

UK's manufacturing PMI improved to 49.6, still in contraction but above consensus. The manufacturing output sub-index expanded for the first time in 13 months, partly reflecting a one-off restart of production at a major automaker. Services PMI also improved slightly.

UK GfK consumer confidence improved.

UK retail sales unexpectedly rose in September, driven by strength in non-food stores and online sales.

Daily debit card spending is well above 2024 levels.

Our timely consumption estimate for the UK has been solid.

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Europe

Germany's manufacturing PMI remained stuck in contraction for the 40th month, but the services PMI surged, supported by expanding new orders.

Germany's Weekly Activity Index finally turned positive after 23 weeks of negative readings.

French business activity contracted at its fastest pace in eight months. The decline was led by the services sector, which hit an eight-month low amid weak demand and domestic political uncertainty.

Consumer confidence, however, improved.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

The flash Eurozone services sector PMI surged, while manufacturing hit the neutral 50.0 mark.

Spain's unemployment rate ticked up to 10.45% in the third quarter from 10.29% previously.

Producer price inflation turned positive.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

Sweden's producer prices fell month-over-month, but the annual rate turned positive for the first time since February.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

Irish consumer confidence worsened in October.

Belgian business confidence deteriorated in October, falling more than expected.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

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Asia-Pacific

Japan's headline and core (ex-fresh food) inflation both accelerated, partly due to base effects from energy subsidies. However, the “core-core” measure (ex-fresh food and energy) slowed more than expected.

Japan's flash PMI showed weakness, with fading momentum in the services sector and a continued manufacturing contraction. Despite slowing activity, inflationary pressures re-accelerated due to higher costs and a weak yen.

Australia's flash PMIs revealed a two-speed economy in October. The services sector expanded at a faster pace while the manufacturing sector fell into contraction amid the steepest decline in new goods orders this year.

Singapore's industrial production surged in September.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

Hong Kong's business confidence improved in the fourth quarter but remained in pessimistic territory.

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China

Chinese stocks rose after Beijing’s new five-year plan emphasized tech self-reliance and a meeting between Xi and Trump was confirmed.

Source: Bloomberg

Officials also told reporters that the country aims to lift household consumption as a share of GDP “significantly” while maintaining steady growth.

Source: Reuters

Loan demand improved slightly in Q3.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

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Emerging Markets ex China

The Bank of Russia cut its key interest rate by 50 bps to 16.5%, its fourth consecutive reduction, despite elevated inflation. The central bank cited mounting pro-inflationary pressures from fuel shortages, a planned VAT hike, and record-low unemployment fueling wage growth.

India's flash PMI report showed a sharp slowdown in the services sector, offsetting a resilient manufacturing reading. The slowdown was driven by the weakest new order growth in five months and the softest job creation in 1.5 years.

Source: S&P Global

Confidence in the Czech Republic improved, with the business sentiment index rising to its highest since June 2022 and the consumer confidence index reaching its highest level since February 2020.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

Brazil's mid-month IPCA inflation readings were cool, driven by lower electricity tariffs and a surprise drop in industrial goods prices. While core inflation was also soft, the three-month average for labor-sensitive services accelerated, signaling persistent wage pressures that will likely keep monetary policy conservative.