- Augur Digest
- Posts
- Augur Digest #111
Augur Digest #111
Augur Infinity
October 27, 2025
- Headlines
- Global Developments
- United States
- Canada
- United Kingdom
- The Eurozone
- Europe
- Japan
- Asia-Pacific
- China
- Emerging Markets
- Equities
- Rates
- Commodities
- Cryptocurrency
Headlines
- US and Chinese trade representatives reached a framework agreement.
- The White House announced a 10 percent tariff increase on imports from Canada.
- Moody’s Investors Service affirmed France's Aa3 rating but revised its outlook to negative, citing political instability risks related to ongoing budget negotiations.
Global Developments
- US and Chinese officials outlined a preliminary trade deal framework that would delay new US tariffs and China’s rare earth export curbs for a year. The agreement, to be reviewed by Presidents Trump and Xi this week, also includes China resuming US soybean purchases and extending the current tariff truce.
Source: Reuters
- Global equities rallied on the news, with the MSCI ACWI ETF reaching its 38th all-time high of 2025.
In fact, nearly 60% of global equity benchmarks reached all-time highs in the last month.
- Soybean futures jumped …
… while gold fell sharply.
United States
- The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index improved, but remained negative for the third consecutive month.
Interactive chart on Augur Infinity
The production index was steady, but new orders and capacity utilization slipped.
Interactive chart on Augur Infinity
- The Chicago Fed’s October Labor Market Indicators show labor conditions holding steady despite the government shutdown, with the real-time unemployment forecast at 4.35%.
- Both growth and inflation data have surprised to the downside recently.
- The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is tracking Q3 GDP at 3.9%, roughly unchanged from October 16 due to a data vacuum.
- The betting market is now assigning the highest probability to the government shutdown lasting beyond November 16.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said five candidates remain for Federal Reserve chair—Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Rick Rieder. Trump said he expects to name Jerome Powell’s successor by year-end.
Source: CNBC
Canada
- Early estimate shows wholesale sales were essentially unchanged in September, reflecting weaker machinery and equipment sales.
Interactive chart on Augur Infinity
United Kingdom
- The UK's CBI gauge of retail sales improved but remained deeply in negative territory.
- FTSE 100 reached the 34th all-time high in 2025.
The Eurozone
- Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index beat consensus expectations. This was driven entirely by a rise in future expectations, which reached its highest level since February 2022. However, firms' assessment of their current situation worsened.
Interactive chart on Augur Infinity
- Credit creation in the Eurozone was mixed, as lending growth to companies slowed while growth in loans to households ticked up to its fastest pace since March 2023.
Interactive chart on Augur Infinity
- Eurozone M3 money supply growth eased.
- Euro Stoxx 50 has climbed to yet another all-time high.
Europe
- Norway's domestic debt growth slowed.
Interactive chart on Augur Infinity
- In Sweden, household lending growth edged up to its highest since January 2023.
Interactive chart on Augur Infinity
Japan
- Japan’s services producer price index, a leading indicator of service-sector inflation, accelerated, driven by labor-intensive sectors such as hotels and construction.
- The TOPIX Index closed at its 22nd all-time high of the year.
- Nikkei 225 climbed past the 50,000 level for the first time ever.
Asia-Pacific
- Taiwan's consumer confidence edged down slightly.
Its unemployment rate held steady.
- KOSPI continued to surge past the 4000 level for the first time.
China
- The Shanghai Composite Index climbed to the highest level since July 2015.
- China attracted ¥573.75 billion in foreign direct investment in January–September 2025, down 10.4% over the same period last year. However, the September single-month reading rose 11.2% Y/Y.
- Industrial profits rose 3.2% Y/Y in the first nine months of 2025. September single-month profits surged 21.6% Y/Y, led by gains in electronics, electrical equipment, and power generation.
The headline figure was inflated by a favorable base effect. Sequential growth slowed in the lastest month.
- Hong Kong's trade deficit widened as growth in both exports and imports accelerated.
- China’s securities regulator announced plans to simplify rules for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors, aiming to attract more long-term capital. The reforms include faster licensing, broader market access and improved fund transfer efficiency.
Source: Bloomberg
Emerging Markets
- Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund is just shy of all-time highs.
- Mexico’s trade deficit widened significantly more than anticipated in September. A continued decline in capital goods imports suggests a potential slowing of investment.
Interactive chart on Augur Infinity
- Consumer confidence in Brazil improved in October, driven by gains in both the current conditions and future expectations components. Despite the rise, all subindices remain firmly in pessimistic territory.
- The BOVESPA Index has reached another all-time high.
- Argentina’s markets rallied after President Javier Milei’s party pulled off a strong victory in Sunday’s legislative elections, defying investor fears of a setback. The S&P MERVAL Index rallied by 20%.
The Argentine peso also jumped.
- Turkey’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.6%.
Capacity utilization in Turkey increased slightly.
Business confidence edged higher.
- Thailand’s trade balance swung to a surplus, significantly beating consensus expectations for a smaller surplus. The result was driven by a sharp acceleration in export growth, which rose to its highest level since March 2022, alongside a pickup in import growth.
Equities
- Global equities rallied on optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade deal. Asian markets were particularly strong; South Korea surged 2.1% for its fourth straight day of gains, while China rose 1.3%, also marking its third day of advances. In Europe, the UK market gained for a fourth day. Conversely, Canada was the sole major market to decline, slipping 0.1%.
- S&P 500 has reached an all-time high.
This is the 35th all-time high of the year.
- Nearly 70% of S&P 500 firms reporting so far have exceeded Q3 sales estimates—the highest share in four years.
Source: Bloomberg
Rates
- The US Treasury curve flattened as yields on the short end rose while long-end yields declined. Yields on the 2-year and 5-year notes increased for a third consecutive day, rising 2.0 bps and 1.7 bps, respectively. In contrast, the 10-year yield fell by 0.4 bps and the 30-year yield decreased by 2.2 bps.
- US Treasury 10y/30y curve flattened below its 100-day moving average.
- The MOVE Index fell to the lowest level since November 2021.
Commodities
On a roll-adjusted basis, gold had the worst five days since March 2020.
Despite the pullback, prices remain up more than 50% this year. Even so, its share as a percentage of global wealth remains low.
Source: BCA Research
- Aluminum continues to surge.
- Wheat jumped above its 50-day moving average.
- Live cattle fell below its 100-day moving average.
Cryptocurrency
- Bitcoin gained for the fifth consecutive session.
Disclaimer
Augur Digest is an automatically generated newsletter edited by humans. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.
Reply