Augur Digest #117

1. United States
2. The Eurozone
3. Japan
4. Asia-Pacific
5. Emerging Markets
6. Equities
7. Rates
8. Commodities

United States

• Banks modestly tightened CRE and corporate lending standards; standards for household credit were largely unchanged.

• The Redbook index of US same-store retail sales accelerated in the latest week.

• US small-business employment showed continued moderation in hiring.

Source: Paychex

Wage growth slowed slightly, while weekly hours worked and weekly earnings accelerated, reflecting greater reliance on existing labor.

Source: Paychex

• The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, based on very limited data due to the ongoing government shutdown, is now tracking Q3 GDP at 4%, up from 3.9% on October 27.

• US corrugated box shipments fell to their lowest third-quarter level since 2015.

Source: Bloomberg

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The Eurozone

• France’s year-to-date budget deficit narrowed in September.

• Spain's unemployment rolls rose and were well above consensus expectations. Our seasonally-adjusted measure, however, continued to decline.

New car sales growth remained strong in October.

• Italian new car registrations declined in October.

• Portugal's year-to-date budget deficit narrowed considerably in October.

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Japan

• Japan's final manufacturing PMI for October was revised down slightly to a 19-month low, as slumping automotive and semiconductor demand drove sharp declines in new and export orders.

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Asia-Pacific

• The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% and signaled a high bar for further easing amid sticky inflation, tight labor markets, and strengthening housing conditions.

Updated forecasts show core inflation remaining above target through 2026 and a higher assumed policy path.

Source: Goldman Sachs

Source: Reuters

• South Korean inflation accelerated, driven largely by holiday-related spikes in travel and services costs.

• The Global Dairy Trade Price Index fell for the second consecutive auction, signaling continued softness in a key export for New Zealand.

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Emerging Markets

• Brazilian industrial production contracted by 0.4% M/M in September but rose 2.0% Y/Y, above consensus.

IPC-Fipe inflation, which measures consumer prices in São Paulo, decelerated sharply in October.

• Consumer confidence in Mexico edged lower in October, but remained well above the long-term average.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

Mexico’s remittances slipped in September, with MXN appreciation amplifying the decline in local-currency terms.

• Argentina's tax revenue improved in October, but remained below 2024 levels.

• Turkey's preliminary trade deficit widened to its largest level in four months in October.

Tourist arrivals to Turkey slowed significantly in September.

Turkey's foreign exchange reserves declined in the latest week.

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Equities

• Palantir, down over 10% at the lows, and AI valuation concerns drag the entire market down.

• E-mini futures liquidity has deteriorated recently.

• The ratio between the Equal-Weighted and Cap-Weighted S&P 500 indices fell to the lowest level since April 2003.

• The US size factor (small cap vs. large cap) fell below its 100-day moving average.

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Rates

• US Treasury 10-year yield continued flirting with its 50-day moving average.

• Here are USD inflation swap rates across the curve. The front end of the inflation swap curve declined sharply.

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Commodities

• Cocoa jumped over 6% in the prior session and continued it's rally today.

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Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automatically generated newsletter edited by humans. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.