Augur Digest #127

1. United States
2. Canada
3. The Eurozone
4. Europe
5. Japan
6. Asia-Pacific
7. China
8. Equities
9. Rates
10. Commodities

United States

• US factory orders rebounded, in line with expectations and driven by the volatile transportation sector. Orders excluding transportation were roughly flat.

• The weekly ADP employment report showed a smaller job loss.

• The New York Fed’s services activity index improved slightly but remained deep in contractionary territory.

• The Redbook index of same-store sales growth accelerated week over week.

• The NAHB housing market index edged up slightly, beating expectations but still indicating pessimistic sentiment among homebuilders.

• Professional forecasters now expect slightly stronger US GDP growth in 2025–26, broadly stable unemployment, and higher inflation.

Recession odds declined slightly.

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Canada

• Canadian housing starts declined sharply in the latest reading, falling well short of consensus forecasts and reaching the lowest level since March.

• S&P/TSX Composite fell below its 50-day moving average.

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The Eurozone

• Euro Stoxx 50 joined the global equity selloff, slumping below its 50-day moving average.

• The DAX Index fell below its 200-day moving average.

• Belgian construction output was weak.

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Europe

• Hungarian wage growth accelerated.

• Czech producer prices fell at a faster pace year over year.

• Hungary’s central bank held its key interest rate steady at 6.5%, in line with market expectations.

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Japan

• Japanese equities and super-long JGBs sold off amid concerns over fiscal deterioration, stretched tech valuations, and rising diplomatic tensions with China.

Source: @markets

The TOPIX Index had the worst day since April.

30-year JGB yield rose for the ninth consecutive session …

… to the highest level since official issuance began.

Source: @markets

• USDJPY touched 155, around levels that previously prompted intervention.

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Asia-Pacific

• The Global Dairy Trade Price Index fell for further.

• Taiwan SE Weighted Index fell below its 50-day moving average …

… as did the S&P/NZX 50.

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China

• China's market cap weight in MSCI EM (using the ETF EEM as a proxy) has fallen below 30% again, down sharply from a peak of nearly 45%.

• After increasing steadily for over two years, Hong Kong’s unemployment rate edged lower.

• CSI 300 closed below its 50-day moving average.

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Equities

• Global equities declined amid broad-based risk aversion, with valuation concerns centered on the technology sector. US markets fell for a fourth consecutive day, with the S&P 500’s five-day return is the lowest since April 2025.

• S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary fell below its 100-day moving average.

• S&P 500 Financials declined below its 200-day moving average.

• The Russell 2000 fell below its 100-day moving average.

S&P SmallCap 600 entered a correction.

The US small-cap versus large-cap ratio is at its lowest level since August.

• The CNN Fear & Greed Index sank further into "extreme fear" territory.

Source: CNN Business

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Rates

• Yields on the 2-year and 10-year notes fell by 3.2 bps and 1.3 bps, respectively, while the 30-year bond yield edged slightly higher. The move reflects deteriorating risk sentiment rather than a shift in economic outlook.

• Interest rate volatilities continue to rise from the lows.

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Commodities

• Cocoa, on a roll-adjusted basis, has declined for ten straight days.

• Soybean Oil rose above its 100-day moving average.

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Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automatically generated newsletter edited by humans. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.