- United States
- Canada
- United Kingdom
- The Eurozone
- Europe
- Japan
- Asia-Pacific
- China
- India
- Emerging Markets
- Equities
- Rates
- Credit
- Energy
- Commodities
- Cryptocurrency
United States
- US personal income growth topped expectations.
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- Nominal personal spending in the US grew in line with consensus in October, but real spending was subdued
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A drop in goods spending offset a rise in services.
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With the personal saving rate remaining low, consumers have limited capacity to boost spending by saving less.
- Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, moderated further.
Here’s annualized core PCE inflation over different trailing periods.
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Here’s our aggregation of major core PCE components. Except for core goods, all other components eased on a sequential basis.
- The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for December rebounded, …
… driven by the forward-looking expectations component …
… while the current conditions index fell to an all-time low.
The survey’s major purchases index continues to point to a sharp slowdown in goods spending.
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
- Consumer inflation expectations declined in December.
- Used vehicle prices bounced in November, but remained flat year over year.
- The Chicago Fed CARTS estimates that retail sales excluding auto for November rose by 0.4% M/M …
… but the inflation-adjusted measure was flat.
- Bank of America internal data showed that payroll growth slowed in November, …
Source: Bank of America Institute
… and there was no acceleration in unemployment payments. This dynamic suggests we remain in “low-hire, low-fire” mode.
Source: Bank of America Institute
- The ASA staffing index, which tracks temporary and contract employment, has risen well above 2024 levels.
- The National Association of Realtors’ report that the median first-time homebuyer age has risen to 40 captured headlines, but Federal Reserve credit-panel data show the age is 36 and stable, according to AEI Housing Center analysis.
Source: AEI Housing Center
- The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is now tracking Q3 GDP at 3.5%, down from 3.8% on December 4.
- Analyst forecasts for one-year-ahead GDP growth has improved.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Canada
- Canada’s labor market showed unexpected strength in November, with employment rising sharply against expectations for a decline. The gains were driven entirely by part-time jobs, as full-time employment fell for a second consecutive month.
The unemployment rate fell to 6.5% from 6.9%, significantly beating the consensus of 7.0%, as the participation rate returned to its lowest level in over four years.
- Canadian average hourly wage growth was stable.
- The S&P/TSX Composite has reached an all-time high.
- USDCAD fell below its 200-day moving average.
United Kingdom
- UK house prices were flat in November, as buyers paused ahead of the Reeves budget amid concerns about new property taxes and tighter rules for landlords.
Source: @economics
- UK 30-year government bond yield has fallen to the lowest level since April.
The Eurozone
- German factory orders beat consensus.
However, the headline strength masks underlying weakness, as the beat was driven by a massive jump in “Other Transport Equipment” orders.
Source: Goldman Sachs
- French industrial production unexpectedly rose in October.
The strength was due to a jump in energy production, as core manufacturing output actually fell.
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
France’s trade deficit narrowed more than expected in October, as imports fell more sharply than exports.
On a trailing three-month basis, the current account has swung back to a surplus.
- Spanish industrial production remained robust.
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- Greek GDP growth accelerated in Q3.
The IBEX 35 Index has gained for ten consecutive days to reach its eighth all-time high of the year.
Europe
- Earnings expectations for France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX have been revised lower as luxury and auto sectors face weak demand.
Source: @markets
- Manufacturing production in Norway declined for a second consecutive month in October.
- Czech retail sales (excluding autos) came in below expectations.
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- Hungarian industrial production contracted year over year, but improved on a sequential month-over-month basis.
Japan
- Japan’s households unexpectedly cut spending in October. The year-over-year decline was the first in six months and the worst in nearly two years. The weak reading underscores the fragile domestic demand ahead of a likely rate hike later this month.
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- Japan’s leading economic index for October rose more than expected, while the coincident index also improved.
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- Japan 10-year government bond yield is at the highest level since July 2007.
30-year yield has nearly converged with Germany’s.
- Japan’s life insurers kept yen-hedging ratios near a 13-year low in the fiscal first half, covering just 45.7% of overseas portfolios as lower hedging costs failed to spur a shift.
Source: @economics
Asia-Pacific
- Australia’s wages as a share of GDP are starting to rise, while profits (inflated by the commodity price boom) as a share of GDP have been flat to down over the past thirty years.
Source: @ShaneOliverAMP
10-year government bond yield is hovering around the highest level in two years.
- South Korea’s current account surplus has narrowed recently.
Here’s how South Korea’s current account compares against its peers.
- Singapore’s retail sales rebounded in October.
- Taiwan’s headline inflation cooled, but core inflation ticked up.
China
This chart shows that the deterioration in industrial profit growth has been broad-based.
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
India
The RBI cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25% and signaled scope for further easing, while announcing up to $16 billion in liquidity measures to support growth.
Source: Reuters
Emerging Markets
- Philippine inflation slowed on a year-over-year basis, falling below expectations. The deceleration was driven by food inflation turning negative, a consequence of a government price freeze implemented to mitigate typhoon-related disruptions.
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- Brazilian producer prices fell at a faster pace in October.
The trade surplus narrowed.
Brazilian equities continue to surge.
- Mexican consumer confidence fell in November to its lowest level since December 2022.
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- The Mexican peso has appreciated to the strongest level against the dollar since July 2024.
Equities
- Equities finished the week strong with the AAII Bull-Bear spread (retail investor sentiment) is back in positive territory, reaching the most bullish reading since January.
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- Wall Street banks expect the S&P 500 to post double-digit returns in 2026, with forecasts ranging from 7,100 at the low end (Bank of America) to above 8,000 (Deutsche Bank).
Source: @financialtimes
- S&P 500 Utilities had the worst five days since April and broke below its 100-day moving average.
- S&P 500 Energy is at the highest level since April 2025.
- S&P 500 Communication Services has reached an all-time high.
- Technology, health care, and energy ETFs attracted the greatest inflows in November. The financials, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples sectors experienced the most outflows.
Source: FactSet
Rates
- US Treasury 30-year yield is above its 100-day moving average.
- MOVE Index is at the lowest level since November 2021.
- SIFMA’s latest data show total Treasury outstanding exceeding $30 trillion for the first time and more than doubling since 2018.
Credit
- US high-yield OAS fell below its 100-day moving average.
Energy
- Natural gas has climbed to a nearly three-year high amid forecasts for below-normal temperature.
