Augur Digest #151

Author

Augur Infinity
December 24, 2025

United States

1 Initial jobless claims fell for the week ending December 20, signaling a resilient labor market. The drop was broad-based, with no state showing a significant increase.

• Continuing claims rose, a normalization after holiday-related seasonal adjustment issues.

2 Mortgage applications fell for a second consecutive week, driven by declines in both purchase and refinancing activity.

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Canada

1 Preliminary data showed that Canadian manufacturing sales fell for a second consecutive month in November.

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The Eurozone

1 Dutch Q3 GDP was revised up to 0.5% Q/Q (or 2.0% annualized), suggesting an acceleration in economic activity.

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Japan

1 The coincident index was revised up, but the leading index improved less than initially reported. Still, both indices point to improving economic momentum.

2 Japan plans to cut issuance of super-long government bonds (20–40 year) to about ¥17 trillion next fiscal year—the lowest level in 17 years—while keeping 10-year JGB issuance steady, aiming to ease upward pressure on long-end yields.

Source: Reuters   Read full article  

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Asia-Pacific

1 The Australian dollar rose to its strongest level since October 2024, as markets increasingly priced in an early 2026 rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia amid firm consumer spending and wage-driven inflation pressures.

Source: @markets   Read full article  

2 South Korea signaled a more forceful stance against won weakness, prompting a sharp rebound in the currency.

Source: @markets   Read full article  

• Consumer confidence eased but remained near the high end of its range.

3 Taiwan’s industrial production growth accelerated in November.

• Retail sales remained robust.

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China

1 Offshore investors accelerated bond outflows in November, selling 116.6 billion yuan—more than double October’s pace.

Source: Nomura Securities  

2 The renminbi appreciated for the fifth day, trading at the strongest level since May 2023.

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India

India’s government bond market rallied after the Reserve Bank of India unveiled a “shock-and-awe” liquidity push, including ₹2 trillion ($22 billion) in bond purchases and a $10 billion FX swap, to offset the cash drain from dollar sales supporting the rupee.  

Source: @markets   Read full article  

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Emerging Markets

1 Mexico’s unemployment rate edged up to 2.7% in November.

2 Argentina’s current account balance improved but remained negative. Including net FDI, the basic balance looked healthier.

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Equities

1 When the Santa Claus rally is positive (“nice” list), the S&P 500 has delivered an average January gain of 1.4% and an impressive 10.4% return for the following full year. In contrast, when the index was down during this period (“naughty” list), the average returns dropped to just -0.1% for January and 6.1% for the subsequent year.

Source: LPL Financial  

2 US ETFs shattered records in 2025, attracting about $1.4 trillion in net inflows alongside more than 1,000 new launches and record trading volumes, driven by strong equity markets and continued investor demand for low-cost index and higher-octane active products.

Source: @markets   Read full article  

3 The S&P 500 has gone 51 consecutive trading sessions without a 2% decline.

4 US forward P/E edged down over the past two months but still trades at a 47% premium to the rest of the world.

5 US equities are on track for the worst underperformance relative to the rest of the world since 2009.

6 Implied correlation of S&P 500 constituents declined to the lowest level since February.

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Energy

1 Oil is on track for a sixth day of gains, supported by stronger-than-expected US growth and heightened supply risks tied to Venezuela and Russia.

Source: Reuters   Read full article  

2 US private crude oil inventories posted a build last week, a reversal from the significant draw seen in the prior weeks.

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Global Developments

The dollar index fell, …   … with all G10 currencies appreciating against USD over the past two days.  
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Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automatically generated newsletter edited by humans. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.

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