Augur Digest #158

Author

Augur Infinity
January 12, 2026

United States

1 What should we expect from tomorrow’s CPI report?

– Nomura forecasts that core inflation rose by 0.451%.

Source: Nomura Securities  

– Morgan Stanley expects a 0.36% increase in core CPI.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research  

– Barclays forecasts core inflation at 0.35%.

2 The Fed has been served with grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department threatening a criminal indictment over Chair Powell’s congressional testimony on the renovation of Fed headquarters—a move Powell says reflects broader political pressure on the central bank’s independence.

Source: Bloomberg   Read full article  

• Here are the market actions:

– Equities (sold off sharply initially but have since rebounded):

– Bonds (yields rose a tad):

– Rate expectations (little changed):

– Precious metals (rallied to new record highs):

• Prominent economists widely agree that giving the president more direct influence over monetary policy would lead to substantially worse decisions.

Source: Kent A. Clark Center via Joey Politano  

3 Here are the estimated import tariffs by country since April 2025.

Source: Michael McDonough  

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The Eurozone

1 Retail sales in the euro area rose more than anticipated, suggesting that consumer spending remains resilient.

2 Greece industrial output eased.

3 Ireland industrial output growth accelerated.

4 Portugal’s trade deficit narrowed.

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Europe

1 Swiss consumer confidence improved for the second consecutive month in January but remained deeply pessimistic.

2 Hungarian industrial production contracted much more than expected.

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Japan

1 JGB 30-year yield fell by the most in a single day since May 2025.

2 This chart shows Japan’s reliance on China for rare earths.

Source: @bpolitics   Read full article  

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Asia-Pacific

Australian nominal household spending rose faster than expected in November. The increase was broad-based, driven by Black Friday sales and major events.  

• Job advertisements continued to decline in December, though at a slower pace.

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China

Sales of conventionally powered cars in China have fallen over the past decade.  

Source: @financialtimes   Read full article  

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India

1 India’s headline inflation accelerated but came in below the consensus forecast. The miss was primarily driven by a smaller-than-expected sequential increase in vegetable prices. Core inflation ticked up, but a core measure excluding petrol, diesel, gold, and silver softened.

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Emerging Markets

1 Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul 100 Index gained for the ninth consecutive day.

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Equities

1 After a sharp reversal, major US equity indices closed at record highs:

• S&P 500:

• S&P SmallCap 600:

• S&P MidCap 400:

• Russell 2000:

2 Let's look at equity sectors:

• Consumer Discretionary (record high):

• Consumer Staples (above 200-day moving average):

• Industrials (all-time high):

• Materials (highest level since October 2024):

3 The Russell 2000 Biotech Index is in breakout mode with improving breadth.

Source: Paradigm Capital  

4 Variant Perception’s indicator points to upside potential for value stocks versus growth stocks.

Source: Variant Perception  

5 The most profitable companies now represent nearly two-thirds of the market.

Source: Piper Sandler  

6 Deutsche Bank’s measure of equity positioning has trended sideways over the past two weeks and remains moderately overweight.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research  

• Here is the positioning index by sector.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research  

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Commodities

1 Copper stockpiles in Comex-tracked warehouses have surged to more than half a million short tons after 44 consecutive days of net inflows, reflecting a rush to ship metal into the US ahead of potential tariff changes.

Source: @markets   Read full article  

• Copper futures are trading at new record highs.

2 Iron ore prices rose to near 15-month highs as Chinese steelmakers ramped up pre–Lunar New Year restocking.

Source: @markets   Read full article  

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Global Developments

1 The Trump administration is preparing options to respond to Iran’s crackdown on protesters, including sanctions, cyber operations, and potential military strikes.

Source: @WSJ   Read full article  

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Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automatically generated newsletter edited by humans. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.

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