1. Retail sales meaningfully missed expectations, signaling consumer fatigue. Headline sales were flat month over month after rounding, while the key “control group”—a direct input for GDP—unexpectedly fell.

• The weakness was broad-based.

• Here are real retail sales versus the pre-pandemic trend.

2. The Redbook index of same-store sales showed a slight moderation in growth.

3. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dipped, missing consensus estimates.

• Sales (picked up):

• Hiring intentions (edged down for a second month):

• Job openings (slumped to weakest since the pandemic):

• Wage plans (ticked down):

• Price plans (jumped):

• Capex intentions (worsened and depressed relative to history):

• Uncertainty (increased):