1. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index edged down, but remained in expansionary territory.

• The underlying details were mixed, with new orders ticking down and shipments turning negative, …

… while the employment component returned to expansion and future expectations for employment jumped to a multi-year high.

• Price pressures firmed.

2. The pace of weekly job gains measured by ADP accelerated.

3. The US Weekly Economic Index rose to 2.7%, the strongest level since April 2025.

4. The Chicago Fed CARTS estimates that retail sales ex. auto for January fell by 0.1% month over month …

… and the inflation-adjusted measure also dipped.

5. US homebuilder sentiment slipped, with weaker buyer traffic and future sales pointing to a tougher outlook as rising competition from existing homes and labor-market concerns weigh on demand.

6. US freight activity weakened further, with Cass Freight Index shipments falling to the lowest level since the pandemic, even as expenditures firmed.

7. Evidence that AI is boosting productivity is beginning to emerge in US data—particularly in information and professional services—where higher reported time savings from AI tools correlate with stronger post-ChatGPT productivity growth.

8. Here’s the composition of US household assets, with the weight of financial assets at secularly high levels.

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1. Headline inflation slowed to 2.3% year over year, below expectations.