1. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to the lowest level since September 2022.

• The lower rate supported refinancing activity, …

… but failed to revive home purchase demand amid still-high prices.

• Purchase rate locks remain muted, likely due to affordability challenges.

2. The Trump administration plans to raise its global tariff to 15% “where appropriate” while maintaining existing trade agreements.

• This chart shows Oxford Economics’ estimates of US effective tariff rate after incorporating the global 10% Section 122 tariffs.

• Because overall tariff levels remain only moderately lower than before the Supreme Court ruling, simulations by Oxford Economics suggest the Section 122 tariffs are likely to have a largely uneventful macroeconomic impact, adding just a few basis points to US real GDP growth this year. The macroeconomic benefits of lower US tariffs are larger for the rest of the world.

• Trade policy uncertainty has soared since the Supreme Court's decision.

3. US inflation has slowed, but Americans continue to feel financially strained as persistent increases in essentials such as groceries, housing, utilities, and insurance have largely offset wage gains.

4. High-propensity business formation has been strong.

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1. Advance wholesale sales fell 0.6% in January, driven by lower sales in the motor vehicle and parts subsector.

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