1. Initial jobless claims edged down to 213k for the week ending March 7, remaining below the average level in the second half of 2025 and suggesting layoffs have been subdued.

• Continuing claims also fell, partially reversing last week’s increase.

2. Housing starts unexpectedly jumped.

– However, the gain was entirely driven by a surge in multifamily starts, while single-family construction fell.

• Building permits slumped in January, driven by weakness in the multifamily segment. The overall downtrend in permits suggests construction activity will remain sluggish amid high mortgage rates.

3. The US trade deficit narrowed sharply in January. The improvement was largely driven by a surge in exports to a record high.

• The headline figure was inflated by a significant increase in non-monetary gold exports, which are excluded from GDP calculations. Excluding these flows, the underlying deficit was wider.

4. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q1 GDP at 2.7%, up from 2.1% on March 6.

5. The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker edged up to 3.7% in February. Wage growth for job switchers held steady at 4.7%, while wage growth for job stayers rose to 3.6%.

6. The share of energy-related consumer spending has declined in the US.

Back to Index

1. The trade deficit widened sharply, far above expectations, as exports fell 4.7% (led by a 21.2% drop in auto shipments due to prolonged seasonal production stoppages), while imports declined more modestly.

2. Building permits rose for a second consecutive month, driven primarily by a surge in nonresidential projects—especially industrial and institutional construction—while residential activity increased modestly as gains in single-family permits offset a decline in multi-unit approvals.

3. Wholesale trade was revised down from -0.6% to -1% month over month, driven by declines in motor vehicles and precious metals.

4. The S&P/TSX Composite fell below its 50-day moving average.