Charts of the Day

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is now tracking Q2 GDP growth at 2.2%, down from 2.4% on May 16.

• Roughly 1/3 of US Treasuries are held by foreigners.

• Since peaking in September 2019, 30-year Japanese government bonds have lost 45% of their values.

United States

• US Durable Goods Orders for April fell 6.3% M/M (prev: +7.6%). Orders ex-transportation rose 0.2% M/M (prev: -0.2%), and non-defense orders ex-air (core capital goods) dropped 1.3% M/M (prev: +0.3%).

• The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20-city) for March rose 4.1% Y/Y (prev: 4.5%), and 1.1% M/M (prev: 0.7% M/M). The national FHFA House Price Index for March fell 0.1% M/M (prev: 0.0%) and rose 3.7% Y/Y (prev: 3.9%).

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence for May jumped to 98.0 (prev: 85.7), beating expectations of 87.0.

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for May improved to -15.3 from -35.8, its highest level since February 2025.

• US M2 Money Supply reached an all-time high of $21.86 trillion in the latest weekly data.

Canada

• Preliminary April Manufacturing Sales fell 2.0% M/M (prev: -1.4%), the lowest reading since October 2023.

• Preliminary April Wholesale Sales declined 0.9% M/M (prev: +0.2%), the lowest reading since May 2024.

Europe

• Eurozone Economic Sentiment for May rose to 94.8 (prev: 93.8). Industrial Sentiment improved to -10.3 (prev: -11.0), its highest since March 2024, while Services Sentiment slightly dipped to 1.5 (prev: 1.6). Final Consumer Confidence for May was confirmed at -15.2 (prev: -16.6).

• Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence for June improved to -19.9 (prev: -20.8, consensus: -19.0), its highest reading since November 2024.

• France's preliminary May CPI inflation eased to 0.7% Y/Y (prev: 0.8%), the lowest since February 2021, and fell 0.1% M/M (prev: +0.6%).

• France's Jobseekers Total in April fell to 3.013 million from 3.189 million, with Unemployment Benefit Claims decreasing by 175,900.

• The UK's CBI Distributive Trades survey for May fell to -27 (prev: -8.0, consensus: -18.0).

• Switzerland's April Balance of Trade surplus widened to CHF 6.30 billion (prev: CHF 5.40 billion), an all-time high.

• Spain's PPI inflation for April slowed to 1.9% Y/Y from 4.6%.

• Netherlands' Business Confidence for May edged down to -3.9 from -3.3.
• Sweden's April PPI fell 1.6% M/M (prev: -3.0%) and declined 2.4% Y/Y (prev: -0.3%).

• Sweden's May Business Confidence dipped to 98.9 (prev: 99.8), while Consumer Confidence rose to 83.1 (prev: 81.6).

• Ireland's Consumer Confidence for May rose to 60.8 from 58.7.
• Poland's Unemployment Rate for April fell to 5.2% from 5.3%, matching consensus.

• Czech Republic's May Business Confidence increased to 101.0 (prev: 96.5), its highest since June 2022. Consumer Confidence also rose to 100.7 (prev: 97.7).

• The National Bank of Hungary kept its key interest rate unchanged at 6.5%, as expected.

Japan

• The final Coincident Index for March was 115.9 (prev: 117.3), while the final Leading Economic Index was 108.1 (prev: 108.2).

China

• Year-to-date Industrial Profits as of April rose 1.4% Y/Y (prev: +0.8% Y/Y for Jan-Mar).

Emerging Markets ex China

• Brazil's FGV Consumer Confidence for May increased to 86.7 from 84.8.

• Brazil's April Current Account deficit narrowed to USD -1.347 billion (prev: USD -2.25 billion). Foreign Direct Investment was USD 5.491 billion (prev: USD 5.99 billion).

• Brazil's mid-May IPCA inflation was 0.36% M/M (prev: 0.43%) and 5.4% Y/Y (prev: 5.49%).

• South Korea's Consumer Confidence for May jumped to 101.8 from 93.8, its highest since July 2024.

• Singapore's April Industrial Production rose 5.3% M/M (prev: -2.7%) and 5.9% Y/Y (prev: 6.8%).

• Taiwan's Consumer Confidence for May fell to 64.93 from 68.21, its lowest since April 2024.

• Hong Kong's April Balance of Trade deficit narrowed to HKD -16.0 billion (prev: HKD -45.4 billion). Exports grew 14.7% Y/Y (prev: 18.5%) and Imports rose 15.8% Y/Y (prev: 16.6%).

• Thailand's April Balance of Trade swung to a deficit of THB -3.3 billion (prev: THB +0.97 billion), the largest deficit since January 2023. Exports rose 10.2% Y/Y, while Imports surged 16.1% Y/Y, the highest import growth since August 2022.

• Thailand's April New Car Sales Y/Y rose 0.97% (prev: -0.54%), the first positive reading since September 2022.

• The Philippines' April Budget Balance recorded a surplus of PHP 67.3 billion, improving from a deficit of PHP -375.7 billion in March.

Equities

• US markets saw strong gains, with the S&P 500 up 1.9% and Nasdaq advancing 2.2%. European markets also rallied, notably Germany (+2.5%) and France (+1.2%). China was an outlier, declining 1.0%.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields fell across the curve. The 10-year yield decreased by 6.2 bps, and the 2-year yield edged down 0.5 bps.

FX

• The US dollar strengthened against most G10 currencies. The Japanese Yen (JPY) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) were the weakest, falling 1.1% against the USD. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) was relatively resilient, down 0.2%.

Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automated newsletter written by an AI. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.