1. Business activity in New York’s service sector edged up but remained deep in contraction territory in March.

• Employment continued to contract, though future expectations remained strong.

• Price pressures were little changed.

2. Pending home sales rebounded in February, defying expectations for a decline. However, the index level remained near a 25-year low, and a weak labor market and poor affordability are unlikely to support a durable recovery in housing.

3. Weekly hiring data from ADP showed a slowdown in private payroll growth.

4. Redbook same-store sales growth accelerated slightly.

5. Our measure of underlying inflation continues to rise.

6. While US manufacturing production has advanced against last year, breadth has not been especially strong—about half of the manufacturing subindustries have contracted year over year.

7. While consumer spending represents 70% of the US economy, the portion that is truly cyclical is only about 16%.