1. President Trump has held talks with Iran about resolving the war, although Iranian media denied discussions had taken place.

2. Construction spending unexpectedly contracted in January, …

… as both residential and nonresidential spending weakened.

• Construction spending on data centers continues to rise and has surpassed spending on general office.

• The year-over-year growth rate of data center construction remained solid.

3. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell into negative territory in February, although the 3-month moving average edged up and is now roughly neutral, indicating near-trend growth.

4. Coincident growth is at or slightly above potential growth (2%), according to a variety of nowcasting models.

5. The weekly economic index remains firm.

6. Tax refunds are about 12% above last year, with the percentage increase gradually trending upward over the past few weeks.

7. Since the late 1990s, productivity gains have been concentrated in the information sector—growing roughly 5.5% annually versus about 1.2% elsewhere.

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The CBI industrial trends orders balance improved slightly in March but remained deeply in negative territory.

• The selling price expectations balance fell sharply, signaling a potential drop in core producer price inflation.

1. Consumer spending remains subdued, according to Barclays data.

2. Gilts rallied sharply.

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1. Dutch consumer confidence deteriorated further.

2. The euro area consumer confidence slumped to the lowest level since October 2023, as the energy shock weighed on sentiment.

• The ECB’s wage tracker points to accelerating wage growth in the second half of 2026.

3. Spain’s trade deficit narrowed.

4. Ireland wholesale prices slumped in February.

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Norwegian loan growth ticked up, driven by nonfinancial corporate debt.

1. Poland retail sales accelerated but missed consensus expectations.