1. Mortgage applications fell as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up.

• Purchase rate locks remain muted, likely due to affordability challenges.

• Refinancing activity also declined for a second consecutive week.

2. Trade prices accelerated in February. In particular, import prices rose 1.3% in February—the largest increase since 2022—driven by capital goods and metals, signaling rising inflation risks as tariffs and a weaker dollar add pressure on importers.

• Import prices of computer accessories and parts jumped.

3. The current account deficit narrowed in Q4 2025.

4. Deutsche Bank constructed a pressure index that correlates well with President Trump’s well-known retreats from various threats. The index has reached the highest level in his second term.

5. The CFO outlook for the economy improved in Q1. Despite concerns about tariff policy and uncertainty, expectations for GDP growth and business revenue growth over the next year remained solid.

• Firms report that AI’s largest realized benefits include improved efficiency, faster decision-making, and higher output, with impacts expected to strengthen further in 2026.

6. Only 28% of US employees now say it is a good time to find a quality job.

7. The US is a net importer of nitrogen fertilizers despite being a key fertilizer producer and exporter, reflecting reliance on imports of urea, ammonia, and related products.

• Asia bears the largest exposure to fertilizer supply disruption.

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