1. Durable goods orders fell by 1.4% month over month, more than expected.

– The decline was driven by volatile aircraft orders. Stripping out transportation, orders rose by a solid 0.8%, exceeding consensus estimates.

– Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, also rose by a robust 0.6%, signaling solid underlying momentum.

– Here is a look at nominal and real capital goods orders (levels).

• Core capital goods shipments have been strong.

– Shipments of computers and electronic products continued their solid expansion.

2. According to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, one-year inflation expectations jumped, three-year expectations ticked up slightly, and five-year expectations were stable.

• Consumers grew more pessimistic about the labor market.
– Expectations for a higher unemployment rate rose.

– Perceived job security worsened, although confidence in finding new employment edged up.

• The perceived likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment ticked higher.

3. Used car prices accelerated in March, as strong demand, elevated sales conversion, and tightening inventory supported broad-based gains.

• The Electric Vehicle (EV) Index outperformed the Non-EV Index, while wholesale EV volume set a record in Q1.

4. Private employers added an average of 26,000 jobs per week, the fourth consecutive week of improvement, according to ADP.

5. The Redbook index of same-store sales accelerated, with year-over-year growth at its highest level since late 2022.

6. The TIPP Economic Optimism Index dropped sharply.

7. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q1 GDP at just 1.3%.

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1. The Ivey PMI plunged into contractionary territory.

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