1. Talks between the US and Iran ended without an agreement after marathon negotiations.

– President Trump said the US would begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

• Stocks sold off while oil jumped on the decentralized perpetual futures exchange Hyperliquid over the weekend. However, equities reversed upon learning that informal talks with Iran have continued. Oil gave back some of it’s gains, but remained green on the day.

• Brent crude futures surged back above $100 per barrel, but has since returned below.

WTI crude did the same.

• Treasury yields opened sharply higher but have since eased.

• The dollar strengthened before reversing.

• Precious metals sold off.

Back to Index

1. Existing home sales fell, missing expectations, reflecting a soft labor market, weak consumer confidence, and affordability issues. The decline mostly predates the recent jump in mortgage rates, suggesting further weakness ahead.

• The Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability Index improved slightly, but remained near secularly poor levels.

2. Bank of America data show after-tax wage growth diverging sharply across income cohorts, likely driven in part by stronger bonus growth at the top.

3. The healthcare and social assistance industry has dominated job growth since 2024 with 1.7 million new jobs, while other industries have shed jobs.

• Nearly half of those 1.7 million jobs are in the senior care segments (nursing care facilities and services for the elderly and persons with disabilities), accounting for one in seven new jobs since the pandemic.

4. Americans' inflation worries has surged.

5. Goldman has raised the December 2026 year-over-year headline PCE inflation forecast by 1 percentage point to 3.1% and the core PCE inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.5%, with risks to both skewed higher.

• The boost to growth from tax cuts will be roughly offset by the drag from higher oil prices.

6. According to Hutchins Center analysis, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and lower tariffs boosted fiscal impulse by 1.2 percentage points in Q1.