Equity and rates implied volatilities have fallen below pre–Iran conflict levels.

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1. The Fed’s tone has turned less dovish since the Iran conflict began, according to a new central bank sentiment tracker from UBS.

2. Total federal tax refunds rose 14% year over year, …

… while the average refund per return rose 11%.

• Morgan Stanley estimates that a 15% increase in average gas prices to $3.6 would offset the average refund increase. Gas prices are currently over $4 per gallon.