1. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey shows that perceptions of general business conditions were mixed, with current conditions falling slightly while future expectations improved.

• Production (solid expansion):

• New orders (improved):

• Employment (roughly flat):

• Price pressure (ticked up, but expectations eased):

2. The US Weekly Economic Index softened, but remained above potential growth (about 2%).

3. US home price appreciation (HPA) slowed to 1.2% year over year in March, and inflation-adjusted HPA remained negative.

4. Goldman expects December headline and core PCE inflation to be 3.4% and 2.6%, respectively.

5. Tariff revenue continues to run at very high levels.

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House prices are falling in the London area.

1. The CBI’s distributive trades survey slumped to an all-time low, signaling weak retail conditions amid fragile consumer demand and rising cost pressures.

2. The 30-year Gilt yield is trading at the highest level since May 1998.

• UK’s intermediate- and long-term yields are higher than those of other major economies.

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1. Since the start of the Iran conflict, euro area financial conditions have tightened. In contrast, the US financial conditions have completed a round-trip and are now roughly unchanged.

2. Oil prices remain above the ECB’s baseline.

3. Increases in PMI manufacturing prices exceeded Deutsche Bank’s model-based expectations.

– The pass-through from input costs to output prices in March was lower than in 2022 but still above normal levels.

• The rise in PMI delivery times also signals inflationary pressures.

• The GfK consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level since February 2023, pointing to a significant retrenchment in consumer spending ahead.

• S&P downgraded Belgium to AA−, citing widening deficits and weak fiscal consolidation that are expected to push debt to 109% of GDP by 2029, underscoring mounting concerns over the country’s fiscal trajectory.