1. The Fed is expected to be on hold at the FOMC meeting concluding tomorrow.

2. The Conference Board consumer confidence index unexpectedly climbed but remained subdued.

• Labor market perception improved, with the “jobs hard to get” less “jobs plentiful” spread edging down. Even so, the spread is still hovering around the highest level since early 2021.

3. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improved.

• Shipments remained weak, …

… while new orders jumped.

• The employment component ticked up, but future expectations softened.

• Prices paid rose while prices received fell, pointing to margin compression.

4. The Richmond Fed’s services revenue index remained firm.

5. According to ADP, private employers added an average of 39,250 jobs per week during the four weeks ending April 11. The prior reading was revised down sharply.

6. The Redbook index of same-store sales growth accelerated to the fastest pace since late 2022.

7. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index dipped, …

… as did the FHFA House Price Index (before rounding).

8. About 30% of car buyers trading in vehicles in Q1 had negative equity, owing an average of about $7,200 on their old loans.

9. March saw a jump in the share of household income spent on gas, but the increase is relatively small from a longer-run perspective.

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1. The 10-year Gilt yield is trading at the highest level since August 2008, …

2. Rising youth unemployment and weaker hiring are pushing graduates in the UK and other advanced economies to pursue postgraduate degrees as a stopgap, fueling a surge in master’s and professional school applications.

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