1. The ISM manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.7.

• New orders edged up, …

… while output moderated.

• Employment fell further into contraction.

• The price index surged to the highest level since early 2022, pointing to significant pipeline inflation.

• The gap between PMI and the ratio of cyclical versus defensive equities remains large.

– The price action of the SOX (PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index) also implies a much higher ISM reading.

2. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised higher.

3. The US Weekly Economic Index jumped.

4. The New York Fed’s multivariate core trend inflation rose.

5. The Chicago Fed real-time unemployment rate forecast for April is 4.23%, down slightly from BLS’s reported 4.26% for March.

6. Retail spending growth since 2023 has been increasingly K-shaped, with high-income households driving gains.

7. Bank of America’s data show card spending per household rose 7.2% year over year in the week ending April 25. Spending excluding gas was up 6.4%, in part due to favorable base effects from the Easter Sunday timing change.

• Here’s a time series view.

8. The share of private capex in GDP has risen.

• However, there are significant divergences within capital expenditures. While tech-related capex is surging, other private capex has slumped.

9. Sectors with the highest AI adoption rates have also seen the strongest growth in new business applications since 2022.

10. According to the Fed’s FCI-G Index, financial conditions tightened in March.

• Our in-house measure, however, has eased back in April.

11. Recession fears have surged to their highest level since mid-2024, according to a CivicScience survey.

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1. Canada’s manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in April—its highest level since mid-2022. The increase was driven by a surge in output and new orders, largely fueled by precautionary stockpiling amid Middle East–related supply disruptions. These disruptions also pushed input costs and delivery delays sharply higher.

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1. House prices rose in April, signaling resilience in the housing market.

2. Household credit creation was strong and topped expectations.