1. Factory orders beat the consensus estimate by a full percentage point in March.

• Excluding transportation, orders posted another strong month-over-month gain.

– In level terms, factory orders excluding transportation have surged this year.

• Growth in core capital goods orders rose sharply.

2. Our economic surprise index for the US has risen, …

… driven by better-than-expected hard data.

3. Real personal income per capita has not grown in 15 months and is meaningfully below the pre-pandemic trend.

4. The Economist’s predictive inflation measure has risen.

5. The median list prices of homes were down 1.4% year over year, marking a sixth straight annual decline and signaling continued seller price adjustment in a more buyer-friendly market.

• Homeownership is falling across all age cohorts.

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1. The PMI report showed that manufacturing activity accelerated in April, distorted by stockpiling amid supply concerns.
• Eurozone (accelerating expansion, matching the initial reading):

• Germany (moderation in expansion but slightly better than initially reported):

• France (solid expansion):

• Italy (improving expansion):

• Spain (returned to expansion):

• The Netherlands (accelerating expansion):

• Greece (expansion easing):

2. French new car registrations declined year over year, …

… while new car sales in Spain continued to grow, though at a slower pace.

3. Portuguese retail sales strengthened.

• The year-to-date budget deficit is wider than the same period last year.