1. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a well-above-consensus 115K, with private payrolls rising by a solid 123K.

– The three-month average job growth eased.

– Here are the month-over-month changes in payrolls by sector.

– Goldman’s estimate of underlying trend job growth is at 51K.

• Unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.

– Here is a rough attribution of how the unemployment rate has changed on an unrounded basis.

– The civilian labor force participation rate ticked down.

– The underemployment rate (U6) jumped 20 bps to 8.2% on a large increase in involuntary part-time workers, suggesting growing slack.

– The spread between the year-over-year changes in full-time and part-time employment, which tended to fall below zero around recessions, remained negative.

• Wage growth moderated on a month-over-month basis.

2. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell sharply, missing consensus and marking an all-time low.

• The decline was driven by the current conditions component, …

… while the expectations component was slightly better than expected.

• The Penta-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index jumped for the two weeks ending May 5.

3. Despite broad concerns over high prices, both one- and five-year inflation expectations declined.

4. Wholesale inventories rose by less than expected in March.

5. The Chicago Fed CARTS estimates that retail sales ex-auto for April rose by 1.1% month over month …

… while the inflation-adjusted measure rebounded by 0.3%.

6. Bank of America’s data show card spending per household decelerated to 2.7% year over year in the week ending May 2.

• Higher-income households are seeing stronger growth than other cohorts.

Back to Index

1. Canada’s labor market weakened, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.9%, above expectations.

• The economy unexpectedly shed jobs, …