1. Both headline and core inflation accelerated further on a year-over-year basis in April. Core inflation jumped month over month, topping expectations.

• Here is a breakdown of year-over-year inflation by component.

• After posting the largest jump on record in March, gasoline prices rose by another 5.4% month over month, boosting headline inflation by 0.4 percentage points.

– Food prices rebounded sharply.

Here are the prices for ground beef, which broke $7 per pound for the first time.

• Core goods inflation was muted, with the tariff feedthrough process likely winding down.

Software, which has a low weighting in CPI but a much larger weighting in core PCE, accelerated further.

– Core services inflation surged, …

… driven by continued firmness in airline fares.

Prices for video and audio services also rebounded sharply, following Netflix’s decision in late March to raise subscription prices.

– Shelter inflation surged, driven by a statistical catch-up in rents when the BLS zeroed out the indexes in October due to the government shutdown. This is a one-time occurrence and has no bearing on future housing inflation.

• Bonds reacted hawkishly to the CPI print, with yields rising across the curve.

– Fed funds futures are pricing in some tightening this year.

2. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was roughly unchanged.

• Sales (slumped):

• Hiring intentions (edged up):

• Job openings (improved):

• Wage plans (fell sharply):

• Price plans (reaccelerated):

• Capex intentions (improved but still depressed relative to history):

• Uncertainty (declined):

• Note that the reliability of the NFIB survey may have deteriorated, with the sample size collapsing.

3. Household debt to GDP fell further in Q1, according to the New York Fed.

• Transitions into serious delinquency improved markedly for student loans, were mostly unchanged for auto loans and credit cards, and accelerated slightly for mortgages.

4. According to ADP, private employers added an average of 33,000 jobs per week during the four weeks ending April 25.

5. The Redbook index of same-store sales jumped to its highest level since late 2022.