The US and Iran have reached a tentative agreement to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and ease some restrictions, though the deal still awaits President Trump’s approval and has not been finalized by Tehran.

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1. The goods trade deficit narrowed more than expected in April, driven by a significant jump in exports that outpaced the rise in imports.

• Exports of crude oil and petroleum remained higher than usual.

• Capital goods imports continued to surge as businesses ramped up purchases of AI-related hardware.

2. Wholesale inventories grew less than expected.

3. The Chicago PMI surged back into expansionary territory and handily beat consensus estimates.

• The strong print bodes well for the ISM report.

4. Nonfinancial corporate margins were strong in Q1.

5. According to Apartment List, US rents continue to soften, with its seasonally adjusted series having declined for 15 consecutive months.

• Elevated multifamily supply kept vacancy rates high.

6. The spending share of the top 10% by income is pulling further ahead.

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1. Canada’s economy unexpectedly contracted in Q1. The weakness was driven by net exports and weak business investment, while household spending held up.

• Looking beyond Q1, the preliminary monthly GDP estimate points to a solid rebound.

2. The March government budget balance was wider than the same month last year.

3. Canada 10-year yield fell for eight consecutive days.

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1. Let’s start with some updates on inflation.
• German headline inflation unexpectedly eased, as lower energy and food prices offset firmer services inflation. Core inflation edged up.

• In Italy, both headline and core inflation rates ticked up year over year.