1. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down to the lowest level since October 2024.

• Sales (picked up, but future expectations slumped):

• Hiring intentions (plunged to the lowest level since early 2020):

• Job openings (weakest since the pandemic):

• Wage plans (stable):

• Price plans (surged):

• Capex intentions (edged down and depressed relative to history):

• Uncertainty (rose):

2. The trade deficit narrowed, …

… as a surge in petroleum exports linked to the US–Iran conflict more than offset rising imports.

• Strong AI-driven demand for imported computers and semiconductors continued to support capital goods imports.

3. Existing home sales rose to a five-month high in May, but this rebound largely reflects a normalization following earlier weakness. Sales will likely remain subdued given elevated mortgage rates, soft demand, improving inventory, and poor affordability.

4. According to ADP, private employers added an average of 29,000 jobs per week during the four weeks ending May 23.

5. Same-store sales growth accelerated last week, suggesting resilient consumer spending.

6. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q2 GDP at 3.3%, up from 3% on June 1.

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1. Canada’s trade surplus widened more than expected, as record exports, led by higher crude oil shipments and stronger auto exports to the US, more than offset a sharp decline in gold exports.

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