1. Here is an overview of market actions during the first year of each new Fed chair.

2. After the US–Iran agreement, Goldman cut the 12-month US recession probability to 15%, the long-term norm and below pre-conflict levels, reflecting improved labor market resilience

3. The New York Fed’s DSGE model projects GDP growth to slow to 1.2% year over year in Q4 2026, …

… while core PCE is forecast to remain stubborn, ending the year at 3.1%.

4. Alpine Macro argues that the recent backup in core PCE primarily reflects a series of negative supply shocks, including the tariff hikes and the oil crunch, and that the impact of these shocks is transient and should dissipate over time.

5. US firms’ medium-term inflation expectations became significantly unanchored during the 2021–22 inflation surge, driven by the manufacturing sector, but have largely reanchored since 2023, according to Cleveland Fed research.

6. Household debt-service payments remain below their pre-pandemic range, supporting consumer resilience despite slower income growth.

7. The Reserve Demand Elasticity measure remained low, suggesting reserves remain abundant.

8. The total cost of homeownership has significantly increased since the pandemic.

9. Alan Greenspan, the influential Federal Reserve chairman who served from 1987 to 2006, died at 100.

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1. Retail sales for April rose 0.5% month over month, while retail sales excluding autos were nearly flat, well below consensus. The preliminary estimate for May points to continued growth.

• Here’s a look at retail sales by sector.

2. Small business sentiment remained subdued in June, with both long- and short-term confidence below the 50-point threshold.

3. Producer price inflation decelerated on a month-over-month basis and missed consensus estimates. The year-over-year rate, however, jumped to the fastest pace since June 2022.

4. The loonie has depreciated to the weakest level since April 2025.

5. Canada’s banking regulator cut the domestic stability buffer by 50 basis points to 3%, enabling the country’s largest banks to expand risk-weighted assets by up to C$673 billion to support lending for investment in defense, infrastructure, and artificial intelligence.

6. Canada’s year-over-year headline inflation accelerated to the highest since December 2023, driven largely by a 33% surge in gasoline prices.

• Core inflation remained contained.

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1. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation after mounting pressure following Labour’s local election losses and an internal party revolt.

• The pound weakened slightly, trading near its 2026 low.

2. The Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75% in a 7–2 vote, with most policymakers indicating they would tighten only if clear second-round inflation effects emerge, signaling a preference to keep rates on hold.

• Rates markets continue to discount at least one hike in 2026.

3. Retail sales rebounded more strongly than expected in May, with retailers noting that sales had been boosted by promotions and hot weather.

• Core retail sales, which exclude automotive fuel, also staged a significant recovery.

4. Consumer confidence held steady in June despite higher inflation, with resilient spending intentions offset by rising unemployment expectations.

• Confidence among 16- to 29-year-olds fell to its lowest level in two years in June, reflecting a weakening labor market.

5. Public sector net borrowing rose in May, higher than consensus forecasts, as higher inflation drove a 54% year-over-year increase in debt-servicing costs.

6. This chart shows gilt returns in the first six months of each year since 1997. The return so far this year is only modestly negative.