1. The ISM manufacturing PMI signaled an easing in factory activity, missing consensus estimates.

– This chart shows the contribution of each component to the headline figure.

• Output cooled, …

… as did new orders.

• Employment, however, improved and is nearly neutral.

• The spread between new orders and inventories signals further softening in factory activity in the coming months.

• The price index fell by the most since July 2022, suggesting some relief from inflationary pressures.

• The gap between PMI and the ratio of cyclical versus defensive equities remains large.

2. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was revised down to a three-month low. Services PMI was revised up slightly.

3. ADP private payrolls growth eased to 98,000, below consensus estimates.

• Here is a breakdown by industry.

• Smoothed on a rolling three-month basis, the ADP reports show some upward momentum in the labor market.

• Wage growth for job changers accelerated, while wage growth for job stayers held steady.

4. Revelio Labs’s US nonfarm employment surged to 258K in June, the highest reading since October 2023.

– Here's a look at monthly changes in employment by sector.

– Smoothed on a rolling three-month basis, Revelio’s estimates also point to solid upward momentum in the labor market.

5. Announced job cuts fell significantly in June.

6. Nominal construction spending growth slowed in May, rising just 0.1% and missing expectations.

• Data center construction spending is nearly $60 billion for the first time, widening the lead over general office construction.

7. Mortgage applications fell as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up.

• Refinancing activity also declined.

8. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q2 GDP at 3.8%, down sharply from 2.5% on June 25.

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House prices were unchanged in June despite easing mortgage rates, suggesting elevated borrowing costs continue to restrain demand.

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1. Let’s run through the latest PMI reports.
• Eurozone (expansion moderating, but a touch above the initial reading):

• Germany (revised up from stalling to a slight expansion):

• France (stronger expansion than preliminary reading):

• Italy (moderating expansion):

• Spain (fell into a contraction):

• The Netherlands (easing expansion):