1. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q2 GDP at 1.3%, down from 1.4% on Tuesday.

• While the headline figure looks weak, the underlying details are stronger. Real final sales to domestic purchasers, which exclude volatile inventories and net trade, are solid at 2.8%. Excluding government spending, real final sales to private domestic purchasers are estimated at 3%.

• Here is an updated look at what the GDPNow model is saying about each component of GDP in Q2.

2. Initial jobless claims edged down, below consensus, signaling limited layoffs.

– The four-week moving average also fell.

• Continuing claims edged up, …

… pulling up the four-week moving average. However, the level of continuing claims remained low by historical standards.

3. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose.

4. Existing home sales fell unexpectedly on a month-over-month basis amid high mortgage rates and low consumer confidence.

– An imminent improvement is unlikely, given that the MBA purchase applications index has changed little over the last three months.

• Sales of existing homes priced at $1 million or more rose 18% year over year in June, while sales in the lowest price tiers were flat or declining, underscoring how affordability constraints continue to weigh on lower-income and first-time buyers.

• Home sales are not constrained by supply, with inventory at multiyear highs.

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1. The RICS house price balance improved slightly but remained deeply negative.