Augur Digest will not be published on Monday and Tuesday (July 13-14), as we complete system updates. The Digest will resume on July 15th.

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1. The Chicago Fed CARTS estimates that retail sales excluding autos for June rose by 0.7% month over month …

… and the inflation-adjusted measure surged by 1.4%.

• Bank of America’s internal data also showed that spending per household increased by 6.3% year over year in June, the strongest growth rate since April 2022.

– Lower gasoline prices reduced spending on essentials in June, with discretionary purchases accounting for most of the growth in consumer card spending.

• The wage growth for higher-income households eased, while that of the lower-income cohort improved, closing the gap.

2. Most indicators show either soft or balanced labor market conditions. Accordingly, Oxford Economics believes that the labor market isn’t on the verge of overheating or adding to inflationary pressures.

• The decline in US labor force participation largely reflects statistical distortions from updated population estimates, with the participation rate essentially unchanged between June 2025 and May 2026 after adjusting for the break in the series.

3. <p>The BEA’s upcoming methodology changes to the PCE price index are expected to trim the current year-over-year core PCE run rate by roughly 0.2 percentage points, based on Wells Fargo’s analysis.

4. Equity inflows have exceeded long-term debt inflows, …

… reflecting the wide divergence between public- and private-sector balance sheets.

5. New business filings continued to rise.

• Delaware incorporations have surged above the pandemic peak. The state remains a top jurisdiction for founders raising institutional capital.

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1. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down.

• Employment gains slowed but beat consensus. However, the gains were driven almost entirely by part-time jobs, while full-time employment was nearly flat.

• The labor force participation rate held steady.