1. June’s headline PPI unexpectedly fell, while core PPI inflation was also tamer than expected.

• PPI inflation for goods saw broad-based easing, while services PPI inflation rebounded.

• Business markups rebounded, indicating diminished margin pressures.

• Incorporating the PPI data, Nomura forecasts that core PCE slowed to 0.175% month over month in June.

2. June CPI showed broad-based disinflation, with only 43% of the basket running above a 2.5% annualized inflation rate—the lowest share since February 2025—and 47% of components posting month-over-month price declines, the most since August 2024.

3. The percentage of small firms reporting inflation as their single-most important problem jumped for the fourth consecutive month to the highest since October 2024.

4. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped, …

<p class='pp'>… driven by surging shipments.

• The new orders component also jumped.

• Employment edged up, although future expectations moderated.

• Delivery times lengthened slightly, indicative of lingering supply-chain issues.

• Price pressures eased but remained elevated.

• The business conditions index edged down but remained strong.