1. The Conference Board’s US leading index fell in June after two consecutive increases, …

… as weak consumer expectations and lower building permits offset supportive financial components.

• Variant Perception’s leading indicator still points to trend growth ahead.

2. Goldman expects a slowdown in real disposable cash flows in the second half of the year, weighing on consumer spending.

• A slowdown in the AI boom also poses a downside risk, given the nearly 0.5-percentage-point contribution from the equity wealth effect to consumer spending growth.

3. Here’s the composition of US household assets.

4. Oxford Economics finds that trimmed-mean inflation measures outperform core PCE as predictors of future headline inflation, with a symmetric 10% trim delivering the strongest forward-looking signal.

5. The New York Fed’s Credit Access Survey showed that the credit application rate rose to the highest level in nearly five years, while the rejection rate remained low.

6. US financial conditions have been moving sideways recently and are roughly unchanged year to date.

7. The ASA Staffing Index, which tracks temporary and contract employment, remains above both 2025 and 2024 levels.

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1. Canada’s headline inflation cooled more than expected, driven by slower gasoline inflation.

– The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures, CPI-median and CPI-trim, both decelerated to below 2%.