1. ADP’s weekly gauge of employment gains showed a moderation in hiring for the four weeks ending July 18.

2. Same-store sales growth softened last week, according to the Redbook report.

• J.P. Morgan is tracking a contraction in retail sales this month.

3. The US Weekly Economic Index softened but remained well above potential growth.

4. The BEA’s upcoming methodology changes are expected to lower measured core PCE inflation for June by about 0.2 percentage points, effectively erasing the apparent acceleration in core inflation this year.

• The downward revision is driven by lower measured portfolio management inflation and computer and software inflation.

5. Business applications have accelerated over the past year.

• Gen X founders still outnumber Gen Z founders by nearly four to one, but the age gap has narrowed sharply since the pandemic, signaling that entrepreneurship is gradually shifting toward younger generations.

• This chart shows trends in business application growth by generation.

6. The under-35 (second panel) and 35-to-44 (third panel) cohorts’ homeownership rates have recovered more of their post-crisis plunge than the Gen X-dominated 45-to-64 cohorts’ (fourth and fifth panels), trailing only the over-65s’ (bottom panel).

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1. The recently announced 50% tariffs under Section 338 apply to a relatively small share of Canadian exports to the US, suggesting a limited impact on growth.

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1. The unemployment rate held steady, defying consensus expectations of an increase.

• Payrolls contracted slightly.

• The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefits increased less than anticipated.

• Total wage growth slowed, although wage growth excluding bonuses held steady.

2. Public sector borrowing was lower than forecast in June, aided by stronger-than-expected tax receipts and downward revisions to prior months. Despite the better-than-expected monthly figure, year-to-date borrowing remains above the official forecast.

3. The UK is the buyback capital of the world.