1. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI softened but remained firmly in expansionary territory, as output growth cooled and new orders weakened. Services activity surged, although the momentum was boosted by temporary factors such as the FIFA World Cup and USA 250 celebrations.

• Businesses raised selling prices at the fastest pace since August 2022.

2. New home sales rebounded in June as builder discounts supported demand, but the level remained subdued.

• Inventories remained elevated, keeping price pressure on builders.

3. The Trump administration extended a baseline tariff regime, imposing duties of 10% to 12.5% on imports from nearly 60 countries and the EU under Section 301.

4. Consumer spending on “experiences” has accelerated far more quickly than spending on the broader category of services.

5. Foreign holdings of US financial assets have shifted sharply toward equities.

• This chart shows the rolling 12-month foreign purchases of US equities.

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1. Manufacturing sales contracted slightly, driven by weakness in petroleum and coal products.

2. Wholesale trade rebounded strongly, reflecting solid growth across machinery, equipment, and supplies.

3. The New Housing Price Index fell for a fourth consecutive month, as elevated borrowing costs continued to dampen activity.

4. Producer prices cooled.

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1. Retail sales unexpectedly jumped in June, as warm weather and World Cup spending lifted demand.

2. Consumer confidence recovered to pre-Iran-conflict levels.

3. The manufacturing PMI edged up, with factory output hitting a 22-month high, driven by strong export demand for AI and defense tech alongside precautionary stock-building amid Middle East supply chain risks. Meanwhile, the services PMI surged into expansion, with hospitality demand lifted by World Cup spending, staycations, and warm weather.

• Easing inflation pressure may give the Bank of England additional monetary policy flexibility.

4. Variant Perception’s leading indicator does not bode well for UK growth.

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1. German consumer confidence dipped, missing expectations as lower income expectations following the end of a fuel duty cut weighed on sentiment.

2. Spanish producer price growth slowed.

3. The flash manufacturing PMI for the euro area expanded further, propelled by manufacturing output hitting a four-year high. The services sector surged.