1. Durable goods orders eked out a small gain that meaningfully underperformed consensus expectations due to volatility in defense and commercial aircraft orders.

– Stripping out transportation, orders rose by a modest 0.6%.

– Further stripping out defense, core capital goods orders posted a solid expansion, signaling robust underlying momentum for business investment.

– Here is a look at nominal and real capital goods orders (levels).

• Core capital goods shipments remained strong.

– Shipments of computers and electronic products continued their solid expansion.

• Timely surveys are consistent with solid business investment.

2. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey showed output growth picked up in July.

• The new orders index improved, though future expectations dipped.

• Employment moderated.

• Perceptions of broader business conditions were roughly flat.

• Input price pressures fell slightly, but future expectations jumped.

3. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q2 GDP at 1.6%, down from 1.7% on July 17.