1. The goods trade deficit narrowed in June as imports declined faster than exports. Despite the narrowing, net trade remains a major headwind for Q2 GDP growth, projected to subtract approximately one percentage point due to earlier surges in capital goods imports linked to AI investment.

2. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q2 GDP at 1.5%, down from 1.6% on Monday.

• As we mentioned <a href="https://augurinfinity.com/tds?date=20260728" target="_blank">yesterday</a>, the underlying details were stronger than the headline figure. Real final sales to domestic purchasers, which remove volatile inventories and net trade, are solid at 3.2%. Excluding government spending, real final sales to private domestic purchasers are forecast at 3.5%.

3. The Conference Board consumer confidence index unexpectedly softened, bucking the trend of other sentiment surveys. That might be attributed to its later survey window, which picked up more of the recent rebound in gas prices.

– The “jobs hard to get” less “jobs plentiful” spread rose to the highest level since early 2021.

• This chart compares different measures of consumer sentiment.

4. FHFA house prices rebounded in May to reach an all-time high.

• In contrast, the Case-Shiller home price index, which reflects the average between March and May, fell on a sequential basis.

5. Private payroll gains slowed slightly in the four weeks ending on July 11, according to ADP.

6. Redbook same-store sales growth picked up last week.

7. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index edged up.

• Shipments improved, …

… but new orders moderated.