1. The ISM manufacturing PMI hit the strongest level since 2022.

– All subindices were in expansionary territory.

• Output surged.

• New orders edged up.

• Employment leapt back into expansionary territory.

• The price index eased but remained elevated, indicating some stubbornness in price pressures.

• Despite the strong print, the gap between PMI and the ratio of cyclical versus defensive equities remains large.

2. Construction spending contracted unexpectedly in June.

• Data center construction spending continues to surge, further widening the lead over general office construction.

– Growth in data center construction spending reaccelerated.

3. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q3 GDP at 6.2%, up from 5% on July 30.

4. The New York Fed’s multivariate core trend inflation measure decelerated in June.

5. Wall Street economists have consistently expected core PCE inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% target within roughly six quarters, yet those forecasts have persistently underestimated inflation since the pandemic.

6. According to the Fed’s FCI-G Index, financial conditions tightened in June.

7. The US Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market has just been through its third major correction in 40 years.

8. The summer travel season this year has been disappointing.