1. Let’s begin with some updates on high-frequency data.
• Consumer card spending growth has moderated on a three-month-over-three-month basis, based on J.P. Morgan’s internal data.

– The implied month-over-month growth rates have turned negative.

– The summer travel season this year has been disappointing, …

… but the new Spider-Man movie delivered a major boost to the overall box office sales.

• Goldman’s social media sentiment, ending on July 31, remains positive, much stronger than survey-based consumer sentiment.

– Daily news sentiment is roughly neutral.

– Our hourly sentiment indicator has improved recently.

• Job postings compiled by Indeed appear stable, but not as strong as the official JOLTS data implies.

• Zooming out, overall economic activity remains strong.
– Weekly Economic Index:

– Our timely underlying growth estimates:

2. Variant Perception’s US growth leading indicator ticked up, pointing to a steady outlook.

3. Technology investment has risen above its long-term trend but remains well below the excesses of prior cycles, suggesting AI-related capital spending has further room to grow.

4. Banks provide less than one-fifth of nonfinancial corporate debt, down from half in the 1970s.

5. Gen Z, defined as those born after 1995, has the lowest median savings-to-spending ratio relative to other generations.

• “K-shaped” spending growth hardly exists within Gen Z. In fact, the difference between higher- and lower-income spending growth has been the lowest for Gen Z over the past year.

6. Higher gasoline prices have driven a sharp shift toward hybrid vehicles, lifting their share of new US vehicle sales to a record high, while the expiration of federal tax credits has pushed electric vehicle sales well below 2025 levels.

7. Trade policy uncertainty has receded but remains elevated relative to history.

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1. Dutch manufacturing production fell.

2. Euro area fiscal austerity has decisively reversed since the pandemic, with budget deficits remaining near 3% of GDP.

3. Greek industrial output has weakened.

4. ING warns that European investors’ dollar hedge ratios fell to 64% in June, versus roughly 73% implied by current hedging costs, leaving EUR/USD vulnerable to a sharp dollar sell-off if a US-specific shock triggers renewed hedging.

5. The CAC 40 Index has gained for eight consecutive days, the longest streak since January 2025.

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1. Sweden industrial production edged down, …

… although industrial new orders surged, driven by export demand.