1. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to the highest level since December 2021.

• The underlying details were weak to mixed. Both shipments and new orders fell, although they remained at healthy levels.

• Employment edged down, but future expectations jumped.

• The six-month-ahead business conditions index rose.

• Delivery time lengthened, indicative of renewed supply chain issues.

• Prices received moderated further, while prices paid rose, suggesting potential margin pressure.

2. The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index rose by just one point.

• The overall level of housing activity remained subdued.

3. Both the home value and observed rent growth accelerated year over year, according to Zillow.

4. Consumer sentiment diverged sharply by income, with the bottom third falling to about 40 while the top third rose above 60, underscoring greater pressure on lower-income households from elevated gasoline costs.

5. Prescription drug prices registered the steepest year-over-year decline in six decades.

6. Cass’s July data showed freight shipments fell sharply to near the lowest level since the pandemic. Expenditures slipped sequentially but rose meaningfully year over year.

7. US tariffs have rerouted rather than substantially reduced reliance on China.

Back to Index

1. The headline inflation rate accelerated, topping consensus, largely reflecting higher energy prices and some temporary factors such as travel prices.

• Core inflation measures also came in hotter than expected but are comfortably within the Bank of Canada’s 1%–3% target range.

• Services inflation rose on FIFA World Cup–related travel demand.

• AI-related pressures lifted the prices for computers, software, and related equipment to the highest year-over-year advance on record.

• The market is broadly pricing for the Bank of Canada to stay on hold at least for the next two meetings.

2. The S&P/TSX Composite reached its 35th record high of 2026 and appears overbought based on the RSI.

3. The Canadian dollar has strengthened over the past two months.

• Leveraged players continue to hold sizable net short positions in CAD.

4. New motor vehicle sales returned to year-over-year growth.

5. Cross-border portfolio investment surged, with foreign investment in Canadian securities rising sharply, while Canadian acquisitions of foreign securities also jumped.

Back to Index

1. The euro strengthened above its 100-day moving average.

2. Greece plans roughly €13 billion of early debt repayments in 2026, supported by fiscal surpluses and ample liquidity, which could reduce debt to 137% of GDP and bring its borrowing stock below Italy’s by year-end.

Back to Index

1. Norway’s trade surplus widened in July.

2. Czech producer price inflation accelerated.

• The Czech koruna strengthened, with USD/CZK falling below its long-term support.

3. European banks have outperformed the Mag-7 since 2022.

Back to Index

1. Q2 GDP grew by 1.1% (Q/Q, SAAR), well below consensus.