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1. Service-sector activity reached the highest level since the end of 2024, offsetting a slowdown in manufacturing.

• Price pressures eased considerably.

2. Consumer sentiment remains low across measures.

• Consumer spending excluding gasoline and nonstore sales, based on Bloomberg’s data, has slowed.

3. The New York Fed’s Survey of Market Participants showed longer-run Fed funds target rate roughly stable at 3.1%.

4. The New York Fed’s reserve demand elasticity indicator declined over the past few months, suggesting reserves are less abundant than before.

• Commercial banks no longer hold significant excess reserves, leaving bank liquidity substantially tighter and increasing the risk of funding-market stress if reserves decline much further.

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1. June retail sales were revised up. However, preliminary estimates indicate retail sales turned negative for the first time this year in July.

2. Mortgage lending conditions tightened slightly, while non-mortgage lending tightened markedly.

• Business lending conditions eased slightly.