Headlines

• A U.S. Court of International Trade ruling challenged presidential authority on reciprocal tariffs; the White House is appealing, and an Appeals Court subsequently granted a temporary reinstatement of said tariffs.
• The Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation estimated the House-passed reconciliation bill will increase deficits by $3.94 trillion over ten years.
• President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell met to discuss economic developments; Chair Powell reportedly refrained from discussing monetary policy expectations.
• The United States and Iran are reportedly advancing toward a comprehensive nuclear agreement, with a potential deal in upcoming negotiations.

United States

• Q1 GDP (2nd estimate) contracted by 0.2% Q/Q (SAAR), slightly better than the consensus forecast of -0.3%. This marks the first quarterly contraction and the weakest growth since Q1 2022, a sharp downturn from Q4 2024's 2.4% expansion. Real Consumer Spending slowed to 1.2% growth (from 4.0% in Q4), and GDP Sales fell 2.9% (from +3.3% in Q4). Preliminary corporate profits fell 3.6% Q/Q (from +5.9% in Q4).

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 24th rose to 240k (consensus 230k) from 226k. Continuing Claims for the week ending May 17th rose to 1.919M (consensus 1.890M) from 1.893M, the highest level since November 2021. The 4-week average of initial claims edged down to 230.75k.

• U.S. April Pending Home Sales fell 6.3% M/M (consensus -0.9%, previous 5.5%) and 2.5% Y/Y (previous -0.6%).
• U.S. weekly mortgage rates rose, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.89% (previous 6.86%) and the 15-year fixed rate at 6.03% (previous 6.01%).

Canada

• Canada's Q1 Current Account deficit narrowed to C$2.1B (consensus -C$3.25B) from -C$3.6B.

• Canada's March Average Weekly Earnings rose 4.3% Y/Y, slowing from 5.1% Y/Y in February.

Europe

• Spain's April Retail Sales rose 0.7% M/M (previous 0.0%) and 4.0% Y/Y (previous 3.8%).

• Italy's May Business Confidence rose to 86.5 (consensus 86.2, previous 85.8) and Consumer Confidence increased to 96.5 (consensus 93.0, previous 92.7).

• Italy's March Industrial Sales fell 1.6% M/M (previous -0.4%) and 1.2% Y/Y (previous -1.6%).

Japan

• Japan's Foreign Bond Investment for the week ending May 23rd was ¥92.0B, down from ¥2833.9B previously.
• Japan's Stock Investment by Foreigners for the week ending May 23rd was ¥309.3B, down from ¥715.3B previously.
• Japan's Consumer Confidence for May rose to 32.8 from 31.2, beating consensus of 31.8.

Asia-Pacific

• New Zealand's ANZ Business Confidence for May fell to 36.6 from 49.3.

• South Korea's central bank cut its policy rate to 2.50% from 2.75%, in line with consensus. This is the lowest since August 2022.

• Australia's Q1 Private Capital Expenditure fell 0.1% Q/Q (consensus 0.5%, previous 0.2%). Building capex rose 0.9% Q/Q, while plant & machinery capex fell 1.3% Q/Q.

• Singapore's April Export Prices fell 6.8% Y/Y (previous -5.3%), Import Prices fell 7.9% Y/Y (previous -4.0%), and PPI fell 1.1% Y/Y (previous +3.6%). The Import Prices Y/Y decline is the largest since July 2023.

Emerging Markets ex China

• Hungary's Balance of Trade for April showed a surplus of €1.378B, down from €1.825B in March.

• Turkey's April final Balance of Trade was a deficit of $12.09B (previous deficit $7.20B), with Exports at $20.80B and Imports at $32.89B. The trade deficit is the largest since July 2023.

• South Africa's April PPI rose 0.5% M/M (previous 0.6%) and 0.5% Y/Y (previous 0.5%).

• Brazil's IGP-M Inflation for May was -0.49% M/M, down from 0.24% previously.
• Brazil's April Bank Lending increased by 0.7% M/M, up from 0.6% in March.

• Turkey's Foreign Exchange Reserves for the week ending May 23rd rose to $69.09B from $65.40B.

• Brazil's April Unemployment Rate fell to 6.6% (consensus 6.9%) from 7.0%.

• South Africa's central bank cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, in line with consensus. This is the lowest since January 2023. The Prime Overdraft Rate also fell to 10.75% from 11.0%.

Equities

• U.S. equities gained, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both up 0.4%.
• Noteworthy international moves include South Korea (+1.7%), China (+1.1%), and Mexico (+0.5%).

Fixed Income

• U.S. Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 2-year yield down 4.8 bps to 4.58%, 5-year down 5.8 bps to 4.25%, 10-year down 4.6 bps to 4.29%, and 30-year down 5.1 bps to 4.45%.

Commodities

• U.S. API weekly Crude Oil Stock Change showed a draw of 4.236M barrels for the week ending May 23rd, against a consensus of a 1.0M barrel build and a previous build of 2.5M barrels.

FX

• The US dollar was broadly weaker against G10 currencies. The Swedish Krona (+0.8%), Euro (+0.4%), Norwegian Krone (+0.4%), Australian Dollar (+0.3%), New Zealand Dollar (+0.3%), and Japanese Yen (+0.3%) saw notable gains.

Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automated newsletter written by an AI. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.