Augur Digest #58 (Flash)

1. Headlines
2. Global Economics
   1. United States
   2. Europe
   3. Asia-Pacific
   4. Emerging Markets ex China

Headlines

• Japan launched an anti-dumping probe into certain steel products from China and South Korea.
• Chinese developer Evergrande is scheduled to be delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 22.
• The British government is reportedly planning to tighten rules on inheritance transfers to increase tax revenue.

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Global Economics

United States

• US CEO Confidence jumped to 49 in the third quarter from 34, driven by easing recession fears and lower trade policy concerns. The reading remains just shy of optimistic territory (<50). Despite the improved sentiment, hiring plans have soured; for the first time since 2020, more CEOs plan to shrink their workforce (34%) than expand it (27%). To manage costs, 64% of firms plan to pass price increases on to consumers, while capital expenditure plans remain weak.

• The MBA Mortgage Market Index rose 10.9% week-over-week, driven by a surge in the Refinance Index (+23.0%), while the Purchase Index saw a modest 1.4% gain. The overall market index now stands at 281.1, its highest level in over a month.

• The API reported a surprise build in US crude oil inventories of 1.5 million barrels, starkly contrasting with the consensus forecast for an 800,000-barrel draw. This follows a 4.2 million barrel draw in the prior week.

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Europe

• Germany’s Weekly Activity Index edged higher after four consecutive weeks of declines but remains near its weakest level in two and a half years, suggesting fragile economic momentum.

• Final German inflation data for July confirmed preliminary estimates, with the headline CPI rising 0.3% M/M and 2.0% Y/Y. The annual rate was unchanged from the prior month.

• Final Spanish inflation figures for July matched consensus, showing a 0.1% M/M decrease and a 2.7% Y/Y increase. The annual rate accelerated from 2.3% in June. Final core inflation was confirmed at 2.3% Y/Y, up slightly from 2.2% in the previous month and matching the consensus estimate.

• Spain’s final Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell 0.3% M/M in July, a smaller decline than the -0.4% expected. The annual HICP rate accelerated to 2.7% Y/Y from 2.3%, as anticipated.

• Preliminary Polish GDP for Q2 2025 showed robust growth, expanding 0.8% Q/Q and accelerating to 3.4% Y/Y. The print confirms strong underlying momentum carrying over from the first quarter.

• Belgian industrial production rebounded sharply in the latest reading, rising 5.2% M/M and 6.3% Y/Y. The annual growth rate marks the strongest performance since November 2022.

• The Czech Republic’s current account deficit widened dramatically to CZK 68.8 billion, far exceeding the consensus forecast of a CZK 23.0 billion deficit and marking the largest gap since September 2022.

• Poland’s balance of trade swung to a surplus of €59 million from a deficit of €1.45 billion in the prior month.

• Poland’s current account also returned to a surplus, posting a positive balance of €651 million after a deficit of €1.84 billion in the previous month.

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Asia-Pacific

• Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose 0.2% M/M, in line with consensus and marking the first monthly increase in three months. The annual rate decelerated to 2.6% Y/Y. The monthly rise was driven by higher petroleum and coal prices and a summer electricity surcharge. In a sign of shifting trade-related inflation, import prices surged 2.4% M/M, while export prices rose 1.6%. Notably, passenger car export prices to North America rose 0.3% M/M, the first increase since February, signaling a potential price recovery as US tariff pressures ease.

• South Korea's unemployment rate fell to 2.5% from 2.6%, its lowest level since October 1997. The labor market remains tight, with a high labor force participation rate and continued growth in employed persons.

• New Zealand's electronic retail card spending slowed to +0.2% M/M from +0.5% previously. On an annual basis, spending rebounded to +1.7% Y/Y after contracting by 0.3% in the prior period.

• Japan’s Reuters Tankan Index of manufacturer sentiment rose to 9.0 from 7.0, reaching its highest point in nearly a year.

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Emerging Markets ex China

• The Bank of Thailand unanimously cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%, a surprise move aimed at easing financial conditions for vulnerable groups like SMEs. The central bank also adopted a more dovish forward guidance, signaling openness to further easing. Analysts now anticipate two additional 25 bp cuts in the fourth quarter.

• Brazilian retail sales for June significantly missed expectations, contracting 0.1% M/M against a consensus forecast of +0.7% growth. Year-over-year, sales rose just 0.3%, well below the 2.4% expected. The weakness was driven by declines in income-sensitive sectors, while a plunge in broad retail sales (-2.5% M/M) was led by sharp drops in credit-sensitive items like autos, signaling a poor start to the third quarter.

• Brazil’s business confidence fell to 46.1 from 47.3, its lowest reading since the onset of the pandemic in June 2020.

• South African retail sales were flat (0.0%) month-over-month. The annual growth rate decelerated to 1.6% Y/Y from 4.3% in the prior month.

• South Africa’s SACCI Business Confidence index declined to 113.2 from 115.8.

• Foreign direct investment into the Philippines was $600 million, unchanged from the previous month's figure.

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Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automatically generated newsletter edited by humans. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.