Headlines

• The United States announced the doubling of tariff rates on steel and aluminum imports to 50 percent, effective Wednesday.
• China accused the U.S. of violating a preliminary trade agreement reached in Geneva.
• The Trump administration is reportedly seeking the “best offer” from various countries by Wednesday to advance trade negotiations.
• OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July.
• The U.S. reportedly sent a nuclear deal proposal to Iran, which includes an offer for limited uranium enrichment.
• Beijing warned Washington not to “play with fire” regarding U.S. interactions with Taiwan.

United States

• The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final for May rose to 52.0 from 50.2 in April, slightly below the consensus of 52.3.

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI for May edged down to 48.5 from 48.7 in April, missing the consensus of 49.5. The New Orders sub-index increased to 47.6 from 47.2, Employment rose to 46.8 from 46.5, and Prices Paid eased to 69.4 from 69.8.

• Construction spending fell by 0.4% M/M in April, following a 0.8% decline in March and below the consensus expectation of a 0.3% rise.

Canada

• The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May increased to 46.1 from 45.3 in April.

Europe

• The Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for May rose to 49.4 from 49.0 in April, reaching its highest level since August 2022. Germany's HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for May slightly decreased to 48.3 from 48.4 in April. France's HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for May increased to 49.8 from 48.7 in April, its highest reading since January 2023.

• Italy's HCOB Manufacturing PMI for May edged down to 49.2 from 49.3 in April.

• Spain's HCOB Manufacturing PMI for May rose to 50.5 from 48.1 in April.

• New car sales in Spain surged 18.6% Y/Y in May, up from 7.1% in April.

• The United Kingdom's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final for May increased to 46.4 from 45.4 in April. Mortgage approvals for house purchases fell to 60,460 in April from 63,600 in March.

• Net mortgage lending in the UK was -£0.76 billion in April, down from £12.96 billion and the lowest since January 2024, while consumer credit rose by £1.58 billion.

• UK’s M4 money supply was flat M/M in April after a 0.3% rise in March.

• Switzerland's GDP grew 0.5% Q/Q in Q1 2025 (final), up from 0.3% in Q4 2024. Y/Y, GDP expanded by 2.0%, the fastest pace since Q2 2022.

• Swiss retail sales fell 0.3% M/M in April, after a 0.2% rise in March; Y/Y sales rose 1.3%.

• The procure.ch Manufacturing PMI dropped to 42.1 in May from 45.8, its lowest level since April 2024.

• The Netherlands' NEVI Manufacturing PMI for May was 49.0, down from 49.2.

• Netherlands retail sales increased by 4.2% Y/Y in April, up from 4.0% in March.

• Sweden's Swedbank Manufacturing PMI for May eased to 53.6 from 54.2 in April.

• Norway's DNB Manufacturing PMI for May jumped to 51.2 from 46.2 in April.

• Portugal's unemployment rate in April fell to 6.3% from 6.4%, the lowest since July 2023.

• Portugal Industrial production rose 1.2% M/M in April after a 3.9% fall, with Y/Y output declining 2.2%.

• Portugal retail sales decreased 0.2% M/M in April, following a 0.6% drop; Y/Y sales grew 2.1%.

Japan

• Capital spending increased by 6.4% Y/Y in Q1 2025, a significant rebound from the 0.2% decline in Q4 2024.
• The Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI final for May rose to 49.4 from 48.7 in April.

Asia-Pacific

• Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final for May eased to 51.0 from 51.7.

• ANZ-Indeed Job Ads fell 1.2% M/M in May, following a 0.3% decrease.

• The TD-MI Inflation Gauge showed a 0.4% M/M deflation in May, compared to a 0.6% inflation in April, the lowest reading since August 2022.

• South Korea's exports fell 1.3% Y/Y in May (from +3.7% in April), while imports dropped 5.3% Y/Y (from -2.7%). The trade surplus widened to $6.94 billion from $4.88 billion.

• South Korea’s Manufacturing PMI for May edged up to 47.7 from 47.5.

• Hong Kong's retail sales fell 3.3% Y/Y in April, a smaller decline than the 4.7% drop in March.

• Singapore's SIPMM Manufacturing PMI for May rose slightly to 49.7 from 49.6.

• Taiwan's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May increased to 48.6 from 47.8.

China

• The NBS Manufacturing PMI for May rose to 49.5 from 49.0 in April. The Non-Manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 50.3 from 50.4, while the General PMI increased to 50.4 from 50.2.

Emerging Markets ex China

• India's HSBC Manufacturing PMI final for May eased to 57.6 from 58.2 in April.

• Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed sharply to $0.15 billion in April from $4.33 billion, the smallest since April 2020, as exports grew 5.76% Y/Y and imports surged 21.84% Y/Y (highest since September 2022).

• Indonesia inflation in May slowed to 1.6% Y/Y from 1.95%, while core inflation eased to 2.4% Y/Y from 2.5%. M/M, CPI fell 0.37%.

• Brazil's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May fell to 49.4 from 50.3.

• Mexico's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May increased to 46.7 from 44.8.

• Business confidence in Mexico rose to 49.5 in May from 48.3.

• Russia's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May rose to 50.2 from 49.3.

• Turkey's Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI for May edged down to 47.2 from 47.3.

• Turkey preliminary trade deficit narrowed to $6.50 billion in May from $12.09 billion. Exports rose to an all-time high of $24.80 billion, while imports decreased to $31.30 billion.

• Poland's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May fell to 47.1 from 50.2. Hungary's HALPIM Manufacturing PMI for May edged down to 50.1 from 50.2. The Czech Republic's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May decreased to 48.0 from 48.9.

• Poland’s Q1 GDP growth was confirmed at 0.7% Q/Q (final) and 3.2% Y/Y (final).

• South Africa's ABSA Manufacturing PMI for May fell to 43.1 from 44.7, its lowest reading since April 2020.

• South Africa’s total new vehicle sales rose to 45,308 in May from 42,379 in April.

Equities

• U.S. equity markets gained, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.7%. Global equities also advanced by 0.7%.
• Noteworthy international moves included South Korea (+1.8%), France (+1.5%), Australia (+1.3%), and China (+1.0%). Brazil was an outlier, up only 0.2%.

Fixed Income

• U.S. Treasury yields rose across the curve. The 2-year yield increased by 2.7 bps, the 5-year by 2.8 bps, the 10-year by 2.9 bps, and the 30-year by 4.6 bps.

Commodities

• OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production in July by 411,000 barrels per day.

FX

• The U.S. dollar weakened against most G10 currencies. The Norwegian Krone (NOK) saw the largest gain, up 1.4% against the USD. The Japanese Yen (JPY) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) both rose 1.1%, while the Australian Dollar (AUD) gained 1.0%.

Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automated newsletter written by an AI. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.