Augur Digest #62

Augur Infinity
August 19, 2025

Headlines

A trilateral meeting between leaders from the United States, Russia, and Ukraine is anticipated following a visit by European leaders to Washington, DC, to discuss the ongoing conflict.
China has reportedly instructed state-owned computing companies to source more than 50 percent of their semiconductors from domestic suppliers, a significant policy shift aimed at increasing technological self-sufficiency.
Standard & Poor's affirmed the United States' sovereign credit rating at AA+ with a stable outlook.
The British government is reportedly considering the implementation of a new tax on home sales valued over GBP 500,000 in an effort to secure new revenue streams.

US Sales Managers Index (SMI) bounced back from the bleak results last month. China's SMI fell back somewhat, but remains much higher than in the US.

July Housing Starts unexpectedly rose 5.2% M/M to a 1.428 million annualized rate, strongly beating the consensus estimate of 1.290 million and up from a revised 1.358 million in June. The strength was broad-based, with both single-family (+2.8%) and multi-family (+9.9%) starts increasing.

However, the forward-looking Building Permits fell 2.8% M/M in July to a 1.354 million annualized rate, below the 1.390 million consensus and down from 1.393 million in the prior month. This is the lowest level since June 2020, signaling potential future weakness in construction activity.

The Redbook Index of same-store sales rose 5.9% Y/Y for the week ending August 16, accelerating slightly from the 5.7% pace in the prior week.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is now tracking Q3 GDP at 2.3%, down from 2.5% on August 15.

Canada’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated to 1.7% Y/Y in July, slightly below the 1.8% consensus and down from 1.9% in June. The month-over-month rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also cooled to 2.6% Y/Y from 2.7%. The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures, CPI-Trim and CPI-Median, were stable at 3.0% and ticked up to 3.1% Y/Y, respectively, suggesting underlying price pressures remain sticky.

The Euro Area’s current account surplus widened significantly to €38.9 billion in June from a revised €40 million in May, driven by a larger surplus in the trade of goods.

Belgium’s construction output rebounded in June, growing 1.1% Y/Y after a 0.9% contraction in May.

Portugal's current account balance swung to a surplus of €507 million in June from a deficit of €347.6 million in May.

Australian consumer sentiment surged in August, with the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index jumping 5.7% to 98.5, its highest level since February 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent interest rate cut was the primary driver, boosting optimism about future mortgage rates. The “time to buy a dwelling” sub-index soared by 10.5%, indicating renewed confidence in the housing market. Sentiment is now only 3% below its long-run average.

New Zealand’s producer price inflation cooled markedly in the second quarter. PPI Inputs rose 0.6% Q/Q, well below the 1.4% consensus and slowing from 2.9% in the prior quarter. PPI Outputs also increased 0.6% Q/Q, missing the 1.0% estimate and down from 2.1% previously.

New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index fell 0.3% following a 0.7% rise in the prior period.

Hong Kong's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% in the three months ending in July, up from 3.5% previously and reaching its highest level since October 2022.

Malaysia’s trade balance widened to a surplus of MYR 15.0 billion in July, significantly exceeding the MYR 5.7 billion consensus. The result was driven by a sharp rebound in exports, which grew 6.8% Y/Y, reversing a 3.6% decline in June and defying expectations for a 5.2% fall. Imports also returned to growth, rising 0.6% Y/Y after a 1.3% increase in the prior month.

US equities fell for a third consecutive session amid a cautious trading environment, with the broad market down 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq declining a more significant 1.5%. Elsewhere, South Korean equities extended losses to a fourth day, falling 1.8%, while Brazilian stocks saw a sharp 3.2% drop. Bucking the trend, French equities gained 0.69%.
The IBEX 35 Index, Spain's benchmark equity index, reached the highest level since December 2007.

Brazil's BOVESPA Index declined by 1.9% on the day, the largest 1-day decline since April.