Augur Digest #66

1. Global Economics
   1. United States
   2. Europe
   3. Asia-Pacific
   4. Emerging Markets ex China
2. Global Markets
   1. Equities
   2. Fixed Income
   3. FX

Global Economics

United States

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index edged down to -0.19 in July from -0.18, indicating that economic growth remained slightly below trend.

• New home sales for July came in at 652,000, beating the consensus of 630,000 but representing a 0.6% M/M decline from the previous month’s figure. However, growth rate for the previous month (June) was revised up.

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for August fell to -1.8, marking a return to contraction territory.

Europe

• Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index for August rose to 89.0 from 88.6, slightly exceeding expectations. The improvement was driven by the expectations component, which climbed to 91.6, its highest reading since February 2022, while the current conditions index was little changed at 86.4.

• Norwegian loan growth was stable at 4.1% Y/Y in July, matching the previous month’s rate, which remains near a multi-year low.

• Switzerland’s nonfarm employment rose to 5.532 million in the second quarter from 5.511 million in the first quarter.

• In Spain, the producer price index slowed to 0.3% Y/Y in July from 0.8% in June, indicating easing inflationary pressures at the factory gate.

• Belgium’s business confidence improved to -8.9 in August from -10.8, reaching its highest level since April 2023.

Asia-Pacific

• New Zealand’s retail sales volumes for the second quarter expanded 0.5% Q/Q, surpassing the 0.2% consensus and accelerating from the prior quarter’s 0.8% decline (revised from 0.5%). On an annual basis, sales grew 2.3% Y/Y.

• The final release for Japan’s June economic indices showed the Coincident Index at 116.7 and the Leading Economic Index at 105.6.

• Singapore’s inflation continued to moderate in July. The headline inflation rate eased to 0.6% Y/Y, its lowest since January 2021, while the core rate fell to 0.5% Y/Y, the lowest since February 2021. Prices declined 0.4% on a month-over-month basis.

Emerging Markets ex China

• Malaysia’s Coincident Index rose 0.4% M/M in June, while the Leading Index fell 0.5% M/M, suggesting a divergence between current economic activity and future growth prospects.

• Thailand's new car sales grew 5.84% Y/Y in July, recovering from a 5.07% contraction in the previous month.

• In the Czech Republic, business confidence for August rose to 101.5, the highest since June 2022, while consumer confidence fell to 99.0 from 104.1.

• Turkey's business confidence ticked up to 100.6 in August from 100.2 in July.

• Capacity utilization in Turkey fell to 73.5% in August from 74.2%, marking its lowest level since August 2020.

• Thailand reported a surprise trade surplus of $320 million in July, confounding expectations for a $500 million deficit. The positive result was driven by stronger-than-expected export growth of 11.0% Y/Y, which outpaced the 5.1% Y/Y increase in imports.

• Polish retail sales grew by 4.8% Y/Y in July, significantly exceeding the 3.5% consensus estimate and accelerating from 2.2% growth in June.

• Brazil’s FGV Consumer Confidence index dipped slightly to 86.2 in August from 86.7.

• Poland’s M3 money supply growth accelerated to 10.8% Y/Y in July from 10.5%, the fastest pace of expansion since April 2021.

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Global Markets

Equities

• Global equities traded lower on Monday. In the US, the broader market declined 0.4% and the Nasdaq managed a 0.2% loss. European markets saw notable weakness, with France and Germany falling 2.8% and 1.2%, respectively. In contrast, Brazil was a regional outperformer, rising 0.4%.

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Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields rose across the curve, led by the front end. The 2-year yield climbed 4.2 bps, while the 10-year yield increased by 2.4 bps.

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FX

• The US dollar broadly strengthened against its G10 peers. The euro and Swedish krona were the most significant underperformers, both declining 0.9% against the dollar. The Norwegian krone also weakened considerably, falling 0.8%.

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Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automatically generated newsletter edited by humans. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.