Headlines

• China's incoming lead trade negotiator is expected to adopt a firmer stance in relations with the United States, The Wall Street Journal reported.
• A trade deal between the United States and India is reportedly nearing completion, according to comments by Commerce Secretary Lutnick cited by Reuters.
• Iran is likely to reject a recent US proposal concerning the nuclear agreement, Reuters reported.

Charts of the Day

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is now tracking Q2 GDP growth rate at 4.6%, up from 3.8% on May 30.

• The Chicago Fed CARTS tracked May retail sales ex. auto at +0.4% M/M, much stronger than April (+0.1%).

United States

• April JOLTs Job Openings rose to 7.391 million, above the consensus of 7.1 million and the previous month's 7.2 million.

• April JOLTs Job Quits decreased to 3.194 million from 3.344 million in March.

• Factory Orders for April fell 3.7% M/M, weaker than the -3.0% consensus and following a 3.4% rise in March. Factory Orders ex Transportation decreased by 0.5% M/M, below the 0.2% consensus and unchanged from the previous month's -0.5%.

• The Redbook Index of same-store sales showed a 4.9% Y/Y increase for the week ending May 31, slowing from 6.1% in the prior week.

• The LMI Logistics Managers Index rose to 59.4 in May from 58.8 in April.
• The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index increased to 49.2 in June from 47.9 in May.

Europe

• Eurozone flash HICP inflation for May eased to 1.9% Y/Y from 2.2% in April, slightly below the 2.0% consensus. Core inflation fell to 2.3% Y/Y from 2.7%, below the 2.5% consensus. Month-over-month, HICP was flat (0.0%) after a 0.6% rise in April.

• The Eurozone unemployment rate edged down to 6.2% in April from 6.3% in March, matching consensus and marking an all-time low.

• Netherlands' preliminary inflation rate for May slowed to 3.3% Y/Y from 4.1% in April.

• Switzerland's inflation rate fell to -0.1% Y/Y in May from 0.0% in April, matching consensus and its lowest since March 2021. M/M, inflation was 0.1%, also in line with consensus and up from 0.0%.

• Italy's unemployment rate declined to 5.9% in April from 6.1% in March, below the 6.1% consensus and its lowest level since April 2007.

• Italy's new car registrations fell 0.2% Y/Y in May, following a 2.7% rise in April.

• Spain's unemployment decreased by 57,835 in May, following a 67,400 drop in April. This was a smaller decline than the consensus forecast of -68,500.

• Ireland's AIB Manufacturing PMI eased to 52.6 in May from 53.0 in April.

• France's budget balance for April showed a deficit of €69.3 billion, widening from a €47.0 billion deficit in March.
• Portugal's budget balance for April registered a deficit of €4.3 billion, compared to a €1.8 billion deficit in March.

Asia-Pacific

• New Zealand's Q1 export prices rose 7.1% Q/Q (consensus 3.7%, previous 3.2%), while import prices increased 5.1% Q/Q (previous 0.1%). This resulted in the terms of trade improving by 1.9% Q/Q (consensus 3.1%, previous 3.2%).
• Australia's current account deficit narrowed to A$14.7 billion in Q1 2025 from A$16.3 billion in Q4 2024, wider than the consensus forecast of -A$12.0 billion.

• Australia's Q1 company gross operating profits fell 0.5% Q/Q, missing the consensus of 1.1% and down from a 6.0% rise in Q4.
• Australia's Q1 business inventories rose 0.8% Q/Q, above the 0.2% consensus and the 0.2% increase in Q4.
• The Global Dairy Trade Price Index fell by 1.6% at the latest auction on June 4, following a 0.9% decrease in the previous auction.

China

• The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May dropped to 48.3 from 50.4 in April, significantly below the consensus of 50.6 and marking its lowest reading since September 2022.

Emerging Markets ex China

• Argentina's tax revenue reached ARS 15.863 trillion in May, up from ARS 13.682 trillion in April.

• Malaysia's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edged up to 48.8 in May from 48.6 in April.

• Hungary's final Q1 GDP contracted 0.2% Q/Q, matching consensus and following a 0.6% expansion in Q4. Y/Y growth was flat at 0.0%, also in line with consensus and down from 0.4% in Q4.

• Turkey's inflation rate in May slowed to 35.41% Y/Y from 37.86% in April, below the 36.1% consensus and the lowest since November 2021. M/M, consumer prices rose 1.53%, less than the 2.0% consensus and the 3.0% prior.

• Turkey's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.48% M/M in May, a slight deceleration from April's 2.76% increase. The Y/Y PPI increased to 23.13% from 22.5%.

• Brazil's IPC-Fipe inflation for May (São Paulo) registered 0.27% M/M, easing from 0.45% in April.
• South Africa's Q1 GDP grew by 0.1% Q/Q, slightly above the 0.0% consensus but slowing from 0.4% in Q4. Y/Y growth remained steady at 0.8%.

• Brazil's industrial production edged up 0.1% M/M in April, decelerating from a 1.2% rise in March. Y/Y, output fell by 0.3%, missing the consensus of 0.2% and reversing from a 3.2% gain.

Equities

• U.S. equities advanced, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.8%. Global markets were up 0.2%.
• In other noteworthy moves, China and Brazil both saw gains of 1.1%. European markets generally declined, with Germany down 0.5% and France down 0.7%.

Fixed Income

• U.S. Treasury yields were mixed. The 2-year yield rose 1.8 bps, and the 5-year yield increased by 1.3 bps. The 10-year yield edged down 0.1 bps, while the 30-year yield fell 1.0 bps.

FX

• The U.S. dollar strengthened against most G10 currencies. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc were the weakest performers, both declining 0.8% against the dollar. The New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone both fell 0.5%.

Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automated newsletter written by an AI. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.