Augur Digest #91 (Flash)

Author

Augur Infinity
September 29, 2025

Note: This is the August Digest Flash—an early look at today’s economic developments. The full edition will be released at 4 p.m.
  1. Headlines
  2. Global Economics
    1. United States
    2. Europe
    3. Asia-Pacific
    4. China
    5. Emerging Markets ex China
  3. Global Markets
    1. Equities
    2. Fixed Income
    3. FX
    4. Commodities

Headlines

  • President Trump is expected to meet with congressional leaders in an attempt to avert a government shutdown scheduled for October 1.
  • The Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly fast-tracking a proposal to allow corporations to shift from quarterly to semiannual earnings reports.
  • Reports indicate that OPEC+ is expected to announce an oil production increase in November.

Back to Contents

Global Economics

United States

  • US pending home sales surged in August, rebounding sharply after two months of declines and significantly beating expectations.
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index deteriorated significantly in September, slumping deeper into contractionary territory (act: -8.7, prev: -1.8). The decline was broad-based, with notable weakness in new orders and production.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • The probability of a government shutdown remains very elevated at around 75% on betting markets.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Here's the typical market actions around government shutdowns since 1976.
  • The ASA staffing index, which tracks temporary and contract employment, has risen above 2024 levels.
  • Las Vegas visitor volume continued to contract in August, though as bad as in July.
  • The US domestic freight market signals that the goods economy is in trouble.

Source: SONAR

Back to Contents

Europe

  • Eurozone industrial sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated while services sentiment softened, pointing to persistent headwinds for the bloc's economy.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • The final reading for Eurozone consumer confidence in September confirmed a modest improvement (act: -14.9, prev: -15.5), though sentiment remains deeply pessimistic.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Germany's economy continues to operate at well below potential levels, in sharp contrast to the rest of the Euro Area economies.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • UK credit data showed consumer borrowing beat expectations in August, while mortgage lending missed estimates (Consumer Credit act: £1.69B, est: £1.60B; Mortgage Lending act: £4.31B, est: £4.80B), suggesting resilient consumer spending but a continued cooling in the housing market.
  • The UK's M4 money supply grew more than expected in August (act: 0.4% M/M, est: 0.2%), accelerating from the prior month's pace.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Spain’s preliminary September inflation data presented a mixed picture for the European Central Bank. Headline HICP inflation rose to 3.0% Y/Y, in line with consensus, up from 2.7% previously, driven by smaller year-over-year declines in energy prices. However, core inflation provided a dovish signal, decelerating to 2.3% Y/Y from 2.4%.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Spanish retail sales rebounded in August, rising on both a monthly and annual basis (act: 0.4% M/M, prev: -0.4%), indicating resilient consumer demand.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Belgian HICP inflation accelerated to 2.12% Y/Y in September, up from 1.91% in August. More concerning for policymakers, core inflation jumped significantly to 2.61% Y/Y from 2.30%, driven by higher core goods prices, suggesting broadening inflationary pressures.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Business confidence in the Netherlands improved in September but remained in negative territory (act: -1.6, prev: -3.3).

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Loan growth in Norway moderated slightly to 4.0% Y/Y in August from 4.1% previously, continuing a gradual cooling trend in credit creation.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Norwegian retail sales growth slowed in August (act: 0.2% M/M, prev: 0.7%).

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Irish retail sales fell sharply in August, contracting for the first time in four months and hitting a 16-month low on a monthly basis (act: -1.0% M/M, prev: 0.9%).

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

Back to Contents

Asia-Pacific

  • Final data for Japan's economic indices in August showed a divergence, with the forward-looking Leading Economic Index rising more than expected while the Coincident Index, which reflects current conditions, declined (Leading act: 106.1, est: 105.9; Coincident act: 114.1, prev: 115.9).

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Singapore’s producer price inflation turned positive in August for the first time in five months, rising to 1.1% Y/Y from -2.4% previously, signaling a potential bottoming in factory gate price pressures.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

Back to Contents

China

  • China's industrial profits for August surged 20.4% Y/Y, a sharp reversal from July's decline. The strong performance was driven by significant margin expansion, as profits grew robustly on a sequential basis while revenue remained flat. Upstream industries benefited from higher commodity prices, while downstream equipment manufacturing also showed strength.

Back to Contents

Emerging Markets ex China

  • Mexico’s unemployment rate ticked up to 2.9% in August, slightly above consensus.
  • Brazil's IGP-M wholesale inflation index rose more than expected in September (act: 0.42% M/M, est: 0.35%).
  • Bank lending in Brazil expanded in August (act: 0.5% M/M, prev: 0.4%), picking up pace from the previous month.
  • Indian industrial production growth slowed to 4.0% Y/Y in August, missing consensus expectations of 5.0% and down from 4.3% in July. The deceleration was led by a slowdown in manufacturing output.
  • Malaysia's producer prices continued to fall in August, declining 2.8% Y/Y, though this marked a moderation from the 3.8% drop seen in July.

Interactive chart on Augur Infinity

  • Turkey's economic confidence index edged up slightly in September (act: 98.0, prev: 97.9), but remained below the 100-level that separates optimism from pessimism.

Back to Contents

Global Markets

Equities

  • Dividend yield in the US is lower than most countries.
  • Implied dividend growth for 2026, based on dividend futures, has improved.
  • FTSE 100 Index has reached its 28th all-time high in 2025.
  • iShares MSCI Mexico ETF is trading at the highest level since May 2024.

Back to Contents

Fixed Income

  • Japan 10-year yield rose again, now at the highest level since July 2008.

Back to Contents

FX

  • Turkish Lira has depreciated against the dollar for eight consecutive sessions.

Back to Contents

Commodities

  • Gold continues to surge.

Back to Contents

Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automatically generated newsletter edited by humans. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.

Reply

or to participate.